USDJPY Forecast and News
USD/JPY sticks to 151.40 amid BoJ’s cautious approach regarding monetary conditions
USD/JPY struggles as BoJ’s cautious approach to keep monetary conditions accommodative. Japanese CPI (YoY) rose 2.6% in March, from the previous reading of a 2.5% rise. The strength of the US Dollar is bolstered by hawkish statements from Fed officials.
Latest JPY News
Technical Overview
USD/JPY remains calm and hovers around 151.40 during the early European hours on Friday. Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) for March climbed 2.6% following a 2.5% rise in February. Meanwhile, the Core Tokyo CPI climbed 2.9% year-over-year, down from a 3.1% rise in February.
Fundamental Overview
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki made remarks on Friday emphasizing the importance of stable currency movements aligned with economic fundamentals. He expressed concern about rapid fluctuations in foreign exchange (FX) markets, attributing speculative activity to these movements. Suzuki stated that authorities are closely monitoring FX developments with a strong sense of urgency and are prepared to take necessary measures to address disorderly FX movements.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida remarked on Thursday that it was fitting for the central bank to "maintain accommodative monetary conditions." Kishida also emphasized that the government would persist in collaborating with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to facilitate wage increases and steer the economy away from deflation. The Japanese Yen (JPY) likely faced challenges due to the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to maintaining accommodative monetary conditions, thereby supporting the USD/JPY pair.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens, nearing 104.60, as recent data indicates annualized economic expansion in the United States (US), driven by consumer spending. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 3.4%, surpassing market expectations of remaining unchanged at a 3.2% increase. The US Gross Domestic Product Price Index remained steady with a 1.7% increase, in line with expectations for Q4.
The hawkish statements from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official, reinforced the Greenback. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments on Wednesday hinted at a potential delay in interest rate cuts, given the strong inflation figures.
Big Picture
USDJPY Bullish Themes
USDJPY Bearish Themes
Latest JPY Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD steady below 1.0800 after US PCE meets expectations
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair barely reacted to US PCE inflation data, with the Greenback shedding some pips. Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak ahead of the weekly close.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2620 in dull trading
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a widespread holiday restraining action across financial markets. Investors took a long weekend ahead of critical United States employment data next week. Fed Chair Powell coming up next.
USD/JPY sticks to 151.40 amid BoJ’s cautious approach regarding monetary conditions
USD/JPY struggles as BoJ’s cautious approach to keep monetary conditions accommodative. Japanese CPI (YoY) rose 2.6% in March, from the previous reading of a 2.5% rise. The strength of the US Dollar is bolstered by hawkish statements from Fed officials.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230
Gold price holds near a fresh all-time high at $2,236 in thinned trading amid the Easter Holiday. Most major world markets remain closed, although the United States published core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge.
Oil looks set to reach $90 despite US production at near full capacity
WTI Oil closed off Thursday at $82.82, close to a fresh five-month high. Oil traders remain bullish despite recent US stockpile build-ups. The US Dollar Index trades in the green, and could post a fresh monthly high.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
USDJPY YEARLY FORECAST
How could USDJPY move this year? Our experts make a USDJPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.
USDJPY FORECAST 2024
The Yen could receive support from the BoJ if it indicates a shift toward ending its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, potentially through a rate hike that would mark the end of seven years of negative rates. Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Hino offered some comments about it in December. Rumors and speculations in that direction would trigger momentum for the Yen. Read more details about the forecast.
The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan led the pair to test the multi-decade high near 152.00.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR USDJPY
There is a possibility that the BoJ might end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) by raising the key rate to 0.00% in 2024. Some analysts anticipate the eventual end of YCC by January, while others believe it is more likely to occur during the second quarter. A significant challenge for the BoJ is to exit from NIRP without disrupting the economy.
Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized that any move will be carefully calculated, and the central bank will likely prepare the market for a change. This scenario is more likely to materialize if inflation in Japan remains above 3%.
Influential Institutions & People for the USDJPY
The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.
BOJ Official Website and on Twitter
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Kazuo Ueda
Kazuo Ueda is the 32nd and current Governor of the Bank of Japan. He is a professor and the dean of the business department at Kyoritsu Women's University in Tokyo and the external director at JGC Holdings Corp, an engineering company and at the state-owned Development Bank of Japan. The 71-year-old is widely seen as an expert on monetary policy but is seen as a surprise appointment by analysts. He was not even considered a dark-horse candidate. Ueda wasn’t really on their radar because the BOJ governor job has traditionally been assumed by a long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrat or central bank official.
Ueda on Wikipedia's Profile
BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USDJPY
The USDJPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the United States and the United Kingdom affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.