Coinbase shares are very unattractive heading into first half, Mizuho securities says

Renewed signs of a “crypto desert” coupled with declining yields make Coinbase especially unattractive heading into the first half of this year, Mizuho Securities said in an analyst report published Tuesday, cutting its price target for the shares to $220 from $300.

Mizuho forecasts the crypto exchange had trading volume of about $525 billion in fourth-quarter 2021, up around 60% sequentially, implying revenue of about $2 billion. This is relatively in line with consensus, the analysts wrote.

For the first quarter, the bank sees “significant downside to consensus revenue expectations,” and if current trends persist, the company could fall short of earnings estimates, analysts led by Dan Dolev wrote.

The bank lowered its Coinbase medium-term estimates to reflect “pressure on crypto end-markets and persistent take rate pressure.”

Further bitcoin appreciation, crypto market volatility and the success of new revenue streams are potential upside risks to the bank’s price target. Downside risks include pricing compression and the threat of a so-called crypto winter, during which the market cap of cryptocurrencies shrinks and volatility falls, the report said.

Coinbase shares traded at an all-time low of about $162.54 on Monday, tracking weakness in the crypto market, before rebounding to close at $191.48. The company went public last April with an opening reference price of $250. The stock closed more than 3% lower on Tuesday at $185.63.