Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Rangebound trading and September blues come upon the crypto market

  • Bitcoin gets another portion of hash comments from regulators.
  • Altcoins ignore positive fundamentals, as always.
  • Technically, BTC/USD is locked in a tight range.

Bitcoin finishes the week with marginal losses. The first digital currency recovered from the recent low of $9,886 but stayed in the red zone as of the end of the week. The total capitalization of all digital assets in circulation retreated to $264 billion from $270 billion a week ago, while Bitcoin’s market share returned to the area above 70.0%.

What’s going on in the market

This week was marked by another portion of critical comments. Thus, the French Finance Minister Le Marie raised cincerns about Libra project developed by the social media network Facebook. He suggested that the European regulators consider creating their own digital currency available to the public. His view is shared by ECB’s governing council member, Coeure, who also noted that Libra is a signal for Europe to improve their retail payment system. Clearly, the idea of CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) is gaining popularity among central bankers and regulators.

In a separate development, Russian Association of Banks suggested that the owners of cryptocurrencies should disclose their holdings, otherwise they will bear criminal liability. The idea behind the concept is to force crypto holders to pay taxes to use their assets for settlements in case of  law enforcement, bankruptcy or taxation procedures. It is worth noting, that Russia is still struggling with its Law of Financial Digittal Assets. The bill has been postponed several times as the legislators' cannon agree on fundamental issues. Now the deadline is November 1.

Altcoins’ universe

Several altcoin projects made their way to the news headlines. Thus, Ethereum Classic activated a hardfork known as Atlantis. The update is aimed to increase ETC network interoperability with Ehereum blockchain, extend the functionality and make int more secure. In January, Ethereum Classic network fell victim to “51 percent attack”. Bad actors can manipulate the network if they gain over 50% control of the hash rate.

NEO developers revealed some functionality that will be added in NEO 3.0 protocol. Stellar project promised a generous airdrop for Keybase users. However, none of the news produced notable effect on price developments.

BTC/USD, 1D chart

On a daily chart, BTC/USD is sitting in a tight range capped by SMA50 (Simple Moving Average) on the upside ( $10,450) and the middle line of daily Bollinger Band ($10,000). We will need to see a sustainable move past these barriers to escape the range and start developing a directional movement.

Considering the flat RSI on a daily chart, the coin may stay close to the current levels for some time, and who knows what will serve as a catalyst that will take it out of this technical trap.

On the downside, once $10,000 is out of the way, the sell-off is likely to gain traction with the next focus on $9,480 (the lower line of daily Bollinger Band) and psychological $9,000. This support is likely to slow down the bearish momentum, though, if it is broken, BTC/USD may retest $8,000 and $7,890 (SMA200 daily).

On the upside, a strong move above $10,450 will open up the way towards the upper line of daily Bollinger Band at $10,800. This barrier separates us from a stronger barrier at $11,000 that stopped the recovery in the previous week.

The Forecast Poll of experts improved since the previous week. Expectations on monthly and quarterly timeframes are bullish, while average price forecasts are well above10,000. Moreover, the quarterly forecast implies that the price may move above $13,000.

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