Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Weekly trades this week focus is NZD as RBNZ meets Wednesday and currently NZD is running perfectly on all cylinders. Next set of weekly trades are USD/NOK, EUR/NOK and GBP/ZAR however analysis is required as NOK and ZAR contain deep price problems.
EUR/USD V EUR/NOK V USD/NOK Correlations
EUR/USD V USD/NOK Correlations short term for 1 year runs -98 % and this is correct. The problems reside as EUR/USD Vs EUR/NOK Correlations at -96% then EUR/NOK and USD/NOK at + 99%. EUR/NOK is not correct to EUR/USD as the Correlation must be positive nor is EUR/NOK correct Vs USD/NOK as the Correlation must be negative.
EUR/NOK is clearly the problem currency pair. To rectify and rightsize the correlation to positive, EUR/USD must trade higher or EUR/NOK must trade lower. USD/NOK however is deeply overbought and far more overbought than EUR/NOK. EUR/USD is deeply oversold.
GBP/ZAR V GBP/USD, V USD/NOK Vs EUR/NOK Correlations
GBP/ZAR Correlations Vs GBP/USD at +78% is precise but GBP/ZAR Vs USD/NOK at +94% lacks proper alignment but is correct at 94% Vs EUR/NOK.
USD/NOK and EUR/NOK Weekly Trades
USD/NOK. Short 9.3039 and 9.3168 to target 9.1367. The first target at 9.1882 will achieve easily. On a longer term basis on a break of 9.0854, USD/NOK targets 8.7766 and 8.3831. Miles upon miles of downside exists to USD/NOK on a sell rally strategy for many, many months in the future.
What 8.3831 represents is proper alignment and to offer what it means for exchange rate prices are never correct. USD/NOK has no business trading a 9 handle.
USD/NOK to follow the weekly trade, vital downside levels are located at 9.2911, 9.2783, 9.2655, 9.2527, 9.2399, 9.2271,9.2143, 9.2015, then 9.1882 target.
EUR/NOK. Short 10.1906 and 10.1957 to target 10.1235. The first target at 10.1338 will achieve easily. On a longer term basis on a break of 10.0512, EUR/NOK targets 9.8034 and 9.5389. To align properly, EUR/NOK must trade to 9.5389.
To follow the weekly trade, vital levels are located at 10.1854, 10.1751, 10.1648, 10.1545, 10.1442, 10.1338 and 10.1235 target.
GBP/ZAR. Short 19.4365 and 19.4448 to target 19.2370. To follow the trade to target, vital levels are located at 19.4199, 19.4033, 19.3867, 19.3701, 19.3535. 19.3369, 19.3203, 19.3037, 19.2871, 19.2705, 19.2538 and 19.2373.
Long term and on a break of 18.9708, GBP/ZAR targets 18.1722 and 18.2850. GBP/ZAR like USD/NOK and EUR/NOK is far off sync to its proper trade location at 18.2850. Until 18.2850 trades then GBP/ZAR adopts a sell rally strategy for many, many months in the future.
NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF
Not only is NZD's main pairs, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF properly aligned but NZD will publish this week to Exchange Rates predict Exchange Rates alongside the NZD orientation to its exchange rates, tops, bottoms possible neutrality to NZD/USD and relationship to NZD/AUD.
NZD/USD. Long 0.6394 and 0.6383 to target 0.6496. Must cross 0.6416, 0.6438, 0.6460 and 0.6482.
Long above 0.6504 to target 0.6592. Must cross 0.6526, 0.6548,, 0.6570 and 0.6581.
NZD/JPY. Long 70.22 and 69.88 to target 70.75. Must cross 70.38, 70.54 and 70.70.
Long above 70.89 to target 72.21. Must cross 71.05, 71.21, 71.37, 71.53, 71.69, 71.85, 72.01 and 72.17
NZD/CHF. Long 0.6251 and 0.6239 to target 0.6339. Must cross 0.6251, 0.6263, 0.6275, 0.6287, 0.6301, 0.6313 and 0.6325.
Long above 0.6352 to target 0.6426. Must cross 0.6364, 0.6376, 0.6388, 0.6400 and 0.6412.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD stands firm above 0.6500 with markets bracing for Aussie PPI, US inflation
The Aussie Dollar begins Friday’s Asian session on the right foot against the Greenback after posting gains of 0.33% on Thursday. The AUD/USD advance was sponsored by a United States report showing the economy is growing below estimates while inflation picked up. The pair traded at 0.6518.
EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750
EUR/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s small downtick and resumed its uptrend north of 1.0700 the figure, always on the back of the persistent sell-off in the US Dollar ahead of key PCE data on Friday.
Gold soars as US economic woes and inflation fears grip investors
Gold prices advanced modestly during Thursday’s North American session, gaining more than 0.5% following the release of crucial economic data from the United States. GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024 missed estimates, increasing speculation that the US Fed could lower borrowing costs.
Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options
Bitcoin (BTC) price has markets in disarray, provoking a broader market crash as it slumped to the $62,000 range on Thursday. Meanwhile, reverberations from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to influence the market.
US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.