Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD, Gold, WTI oil (CL), S&P (ES), Dow (YM), Dax (FDXM) [Video]

Time code
0:00 - Fundamental overview
0:18 - EUR/USD (Spot)
5:01 - GOLD (Spot)
10:27 - WTI Crude oil (CL)
16:11 - S&P 500 mini (ES)
21:43 - Dow Jones (YM)
23:48 - Dax (FDXM)

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
MAIN MARKET MOVERS
(Wednesday) FOMC Statement + press conference;
(Wednesday) Crude oil inventories;
(Friday) EU + US Manufacturing PMI.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

Powell will not say directly that FED will decrease % rates and FED will be looking for further economic indicators. So traders will became calm and expecting further economic signals – this will be signal for strong corrections;
Oil inventories will continue to increase, as market totally oversupplied and oil price will continue downtrend, if we will not have war expansion in Oman bay;
PMI’s became sideways, so next news will be very important, as if PMI will fall, this will be signal for FED to decrease % rates;

CONCLUSION

US Core CPI still over 2% FED target level, where same time PMI much higher 50 points, unemployment on low level, Friday’s retail sales was good. So US economy have all advantages and going well and for June or, probably, July, no any reason for FED to decrease % rates. And it possible that FED will not need to decrease % rates at all, as US economy will continue to go well.
Same time EU do not have where to decrease % rates and looking on this, US economy now have all advantages over EU, that create potential for downtrend on eur/usd and EU equity market.

PRICE FORECAST

EUR/USD
(Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well)
1 scenario: from 1.1205 possible correction to 1.1310 and then downtrend to 1.1150 – 1.1110 (or directly from 1.1205);
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1.1320 to 1.1455.

GOLD
(Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well. Gold trading on the top and need correction, equity market trading on the top, when gold still without correction)
1 scenario: from 1341 correction to 1346/48, then downtrend to 1328/21;
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1360 to 1395 and 1432.

CRUDE OIL
(Market strongly oversupplied, inventories will continue uptrend, that will create further pressure on prices, that probably OPEC will no be able to fix in the end of June and totally market have target on $46)
1 scenario: from 52.50 correction to 54.25/80, then downtrend to 50.60 and after its break down next targets 49.40 and 46.00;
2 scenario, if we will have war in Oman bay: from 54.80 to 58.20 – 61.40.

E-mini S&P500
(FED will say that they need to see further economic conditions before to decrease % rates, that will made market more cold and increase potential for downtrend. VIX do not support further uptrend on equity market)
1 scenario: from 2895 uptrend continuation to 2910/22 and then downtrend to 2871/75;
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 2922 to 2947/55.

E-mini Dow Jones
(same conditions as ES)
1 scenario: from 26140 uptrend continuation to 26290/400 and then downtrend to 25890. And if 25890 will be broken down, next target 25530;
2 scenario: from 26290 to 26525/640.

E-mini DAX
(same conditions as ES and YM)
1 scenario: from 12105 uptrend continuation to 12235 and then downtrend to 12035;
2 scenario: from 12235 to 12450.