After three years of sometimes acrimonious and bitter confrontation, US and China yesterday signed the first phase of what could be a broader trade deal.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

  • The US30 index hit new highs yesterday after the trade deal was signed, closing above the 29,000 for the first time ever

  • The 55-day moving average, which has supported prices since October 10, has moved up to 28,127

  • US retail sales probably 0.3% m/m in December, a slight improvement from November’s +0.2%. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for January is expected to jump to 3.9 from 0.3 last month. We can also expect a speech from Fed’s Bowman.


DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

  • The Germany30 index slid for a second day yesterday after Euro-zone data disappointed

  • The index is still above the 55-day moving average at 13,210, which has supported prices on a closing basis since October 8

  • Euro-zone industrial production fell 1.5% y/y in November, worse than the -1.1% expected. Today we have the final German CPI numbers for December on tap. Prices are not expected to be adjusted from the initial +0.5% m/m estimate.


CN50USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

  • The China50 index looks set to stem a two-day losing streak today after the phase one trade deal was finally signed off

  • The 55-day moving average has moved up to 14,090 and has supported prices since December 12

  • China’s new loans data for December may be released today. Forecasts suggest a 1.19 trillion yuan increase in loans, slightly less than the 1.39 trillion recorded in November.

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