USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian dollar steady, U.S. markets on break for Memorial Day

USD/CAD is flat in the Monday session. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3437, down 0.01% on the day. It’s a quiet start to the week, as U.S. markets are closed for Memorial Day. There are no Canadian or U.S. events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases CB Consumer Confidence. Investors are looking ahead to later in the week, as the Bank of Canada releases its monthly rate statement on Wednesday and the U.S. releases first-quarter GDP on Thursday.

Canadian releases have been lukewarm, but consumer spending was unexpectedly strong in March. Retail sales climbed 1.1%, up from 0.8% in February. The core release was even sharper, jumping from 0.6% to 1.7%. Both indicators easily beat their estimates. Consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth, and if upcoming numbers also point upward, the Canadian dollar could gain some ground on its U.S. counterpart. The Canadian currency remains under pressure, and flirted with the 1.35 line on Thursday.

U.S. indicators ended the week on a disappointing note, as April durable goods orders were softer than expected. Durable goods orders slumped 2.1%, just below the estimate of -2.0%. This marked the sharpest decline since January 2018. The core reading slowed to 0.0%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. The U.S. economy has been performing well, and the economy will receive a report card on Thursday, with the release of Preliminary GDP for the first quarter, which is expected to post a strong gain of 3.1%. The initial GDP reading showed a gain of 3.2%, crushing the estimate of 2.2%. Will the revised release also beat expectations? If so, traders can expect the U.S. dollar to post broad gains.

Markets in holiday mood

MEU elections not so bad for EUR or GBP

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (May 27)

• There are no events on the schedule

Tuesday (May 28)

• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 130.1

Open: 1.3439 High: 1.3453 Low: 1.3430 Close: 1.3437

 

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair is steady early in North American trade

• 1.3383 is providing support

• 1.3445 is fluid. Currently, it is under pressure in resistance

• Current range: 1.3383 to 1.3445

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3383, 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125

• Above: 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662