The US Secretary of Defence says he supports the Commerce Department’s actions on steel and aluminium trade. He also said that targeted tariffs are preferable to a global quota or a global tariff. This would impact EU based steel companies as well as those based in China.
French Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) (Feb) came in as expected, unchanged at 1.5%.
German IFO – Current Assessment (Feb) was 126.3 v an expected 127.0, from 127.7 previously, which was revised up to 127.8. IFO – Business Climate (Feb) was 115.4 v an expected 117.0, from 117.6 previously. IFO – Expectations (Feb) were 105.4 v an expected 107.9, from 108.4 prior, which was revised down to 108.3. EURUSD found support at 1.22751 before moving higher to 1.22990 after the data was released.
UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4) was 1.4% v an expected 1.5%, from 1.5% previously. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4) was 0.4% v an expected 0.5%, from 0.5% previously. GBPUSD went to a low of 1.38735 before recovering to a high of 1.39018.
US Continuing Jobless Claims (Feb 9) was 1.875M v an expected 1.930M, from a previous number of 1.942M, which was revised up to 1.948M. Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 16) was 222K v an expected 230K, with the prior reading of 230K, which was revised down to 229K. EURUSD moved higher from 1.22900 to a high of 1.23345 after this data release.
Canadian Retail Sales Ex-Autos (MoM) (Dec) was -1.8% v an expected 0.3%, from 1.6% previously, which was revised up to 1.7%. Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) was -0.8% v an expected 0.2%, from 0.2% previously, which was revised up to 0.3%. USDCAD moved higher from 1.26989 to 1.27525 following this release.
US FOMC Member Bostic spoke at the Banking Outlook Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He made the following comments: The Fed is carefully calibrating a return to more normal policy and things continue to look up, citing the Atlanta GDP tracker.
US FOMC Member Kaplan’s speech was closely followed by traders for any hints on future policy. He said that he sees US GDP growth around 2.5%-2.75% in 2018 and he would give the economy a B+ or an A-, with a weaker grade next year. He says that the labour market is getting very tight but he has not seen it fan higher wages yet. Inflation will firm up this year but won’t be a hockey stick shape. Businesses still show a lack of pricing power and some progress will be made this year on inflation.
Japanese National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) was 1.4% v an expected 1.3%, from a prior 1.0% in December. National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (Jan) was 0.9% v an expected 0.8%, from a prior 0.9% in December. USDJPY moved higher from 106.681 to 106.990 following this release.
EURUSD is down -0.25% overnight, trading around 1.22991.
USDJPY is up 0.31% in early session trading at around 107.068.
GBPUSD is down -0.07% to trade around 1.39416.
Gold is down -0.39% in early morning trading at around $1,326.88.
WTI is up 0.21% this morning, trading around $62.76.
Major data releases for today:
EU European Council Meetings will take place today and may impact on moves in EUR crosses.
At 07:00 GMT, German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q4) is expected to come in unchanged at 2.9%. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4) is also expected unchanged at 0.6%. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4) is expected to be unchanged at 2.3%. EUR crosses could see a spike in volatility should the data released differ from the expected consensus.
At 10:00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jan) will be released. The consensus is for an unchanged value of 1%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) is expected to be -0.9% from 0.4% previously. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) is expected to be unchanged at 1.3%. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Jan) is expected at -1.6% from 0.5% prior. EUR pairs can see volatility pick up due to this data.
At 12:00 GMT, UK BOE Ramsden is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion titled “Tackling the UK’s Productivity Challenge” at the East of England Confederation of British Industry event, in Cambridge. This may impact on moves in GBP crosses.
At 13:30 GMT, Canadian Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) is expected to be 0.4% from -0.4% previously. BOC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Jan) is expected to be unchanged at 1.2%. BOC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Jan) is expected at 0.7% v a prior -0.5%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) is expected to be 1.4% from 1.9% previously. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Jan) was 0.1% previously. CAD crosses could be affected by this release.
At 15:15 GMT, US Fed’s Dudley is due to participate in a panel discussion about the Fed’s balance sheet at the United States Monetary Policy Forum, in New York, with comments having the potential to move USD pairs.
At 18:00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Rig Count numbers will be released. The prior number last Friday showed that there were 798 Oil rigs in operation. WTI traders will be paying close attention to this number as they look to the week ahead.
At 18:30 GMT, US FOMC Member Mester is due to participate in a panel discussion about monetary policy objectives at the United States Monetary Policy Forum, in New York. This event may impact USD crosses and assets.
At 20:40 GMT, US FOMC Member Williams is scheduled to speak about economic and monetary policy at the City Club of Los Angeles. Audience questions are expected to follow, and his comments will be followed by traders for any hints on future US FOMC policy.
FxPro UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, registration number 509956. CFDs are leveraged products that incur a high level of risk and it is possible to lose all your capital invested. Please ensure that you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer: This material is considered a marketing communication and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation or, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. FxPro does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation. FxPro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any employee of FxPro, a third party or otherwise. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Any opinions made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of FxPro. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without the prior permission of FxPro. Risk Warning: CFDs, which are leveraged products, incur a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all your invested capital. Therefore, CFDs may not be suitable for all investors. You should not risk more than you are prepared to lose. Before deciding to trade, please ensure you understand the risks involved and take into account your level of experience. Seek independent advice if necessary. FxPro Financial Services Ltd is authorised and regulated by the CySEC (licence no. 078/07) and FxPro UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, Number 509956.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0800 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades slightly below 1.0800 in the American session on Thursday. The data from the US showed that the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter got revised higher to 3.4% from 3.2%, supporting the USD and weighing on the pair.
GBP/USD stays in daily range above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth helps the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold clings to strong daily gains above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays above 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.