Forex Weekly Outlook: US retail sales, Critical Brexit Summit, and more


After the Fed provided some hints toward the next rate decision and trade talks rocked markets, the focus shifts to the Brexit crunch time and critical consumer data from the US. Here the highlights for the upcoming week.

  1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. This forward-looking survey of around 300 analysts and investors is released early in the month and is watched by policymakers. After several months of rapid deterioration, Economic Sentiment surprised in September with a jump to -22.5 points. However, the negative number represents pessimism. A similar score is likely for October.

  2. UK inflation: Wednesday, 8:30. The Bank of England has seen the headline Consumer Price Index hover around the bank's target of 2% in the past few months. However, annual inflation slipped to 1.7% in August. Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues may reconsider their intention to raise rates – based on assumptions for a smooth Brexit – if CPI continues falling.

  3. US retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. The US economy is centered around consumption which holds up the economy while investment and manufacturing are struggling. Back in August, headline sales rose by 0.4% core sales remained flat, and the all-important control group increased by 0.3%. Any signs of fatigue from the consumer – as expressed in some consumer sentiment surveys – may weigh on the dollar.

  4. Australian employment: Thursday, 00:30. Australia enjoyed several months of substantial gains in job creation. Employment Change stood at 34.7K back in August and a more moderate increase is likely in the figures due out for September. The Unemployment Rate stood at 5.3% and a similar level is likely now.

  5. EU Summit on Brexit: Thursday, Friday. Leaders of the European Union convene for a regular summit, but the topic that dominates the agenda is extraordinary – sorting out Brexit just two weeks ahead of the deadline. Will Boris Johnson find common ground with his counterparts? And if he does compromise with them, will he continue receiving support from the hardliners in his party? A solution to the question of Northern Ireland's status remains critical. Apart from reaching a deal, the other options are extending Brexit once again – as the Benn Act requires, or leaving without an accord.

  6. Chinese GDP: Friday, 4:00. The world's second-largest economy publishes its Gross Domestic Product figures less than three weeks after the quarter ends. While many doubt the accuracy of the figures, they move markets. Chinese growth has slowed down to 6.2% yearly, in line with the government's projections. A drop below 6% would cause jitters all over the world.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD clings to 3.5-week’s high, trades above 1.1000 figure

The pair is challenging the 1.1047 resistance. EUR/USD bull recovery from 34-month lows remains intact. Further coronavirus headlines are awaited.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD hits new 2020 low and bounces amid Brexit rhetoric, coronavirus headlines

GBP/USD is trading above 1.2800 after hitting a new 2020, nearing the 1.2700 figure, as concerns about a no-trade-deal Brexit are weighing on the pound. Modest recovery seen in USD during the American session keeps the bearish pressure intact.

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD tumbles near two-week’s lows, sub-$1600/oz

Gold has been dropping sharply this Friday while reaching the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart. XAU/USD bulls gave up as sellers took the market down sharply. The bears seem to be in charge and more down could potentially be expected. 

Gold News

WTI remains under pressure around $45.00

Nothing new around crude oil prices, with rising concerns on the Chinese COVID-19 and its potential impact on the economy and the demand for the commodity keeping traders’ sentiment well depressed.

Oil News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures