Since 1 June, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has been scaling back its balance sheet, limiting the reinvestment of maturing debt in its securities portfolio. Assuming that the pace of disposals stays at the announced level, the Fed could shrink its balance sheet by around USD1,600 billion over eighteen months.

The Fed’s securities portfolio (assets on its balance sheet) will automatically reduce, whilst a share of its liabilities, the cash placed with the Fed by commercial banks and/or money market funds, will be destroyed. In 2019, the Fed’s first experiment in quantitative tightening (QT1) had to be halted: it had exhausted the “excess” reserves over and above the liquidity constraints applied to the banks1 and caused the money markets to seize up.

It is true that this time around, reserves with the Fed (USD3,200 billion at 15 June, compared to USD1,400 billion at the time of the repo market crisis in September 2019) and the Fed’s outstanding repurchase agreements with money market funds (USD2,200 billion at 17 June) represent significant reserves of liquidity that should help lessen the shock of this tightening. However, it seems unlikely, in the short term at least, that money market funds will reallocate much of the cash placed with the Fed to T-bills, due to the attractive yield on the facility and the scarcity of T-bills. What is more, in the absence of sufficient investor appetite for long-term securities, primary dealers could be forced to expand their inventories and seek new financing from money market funds. But most such primary dealers are subsidiaries of major banks, whose leverage ratios are already flirting with minimum regulatory requirements. Balance sheet constraints could thus hamper the start of QT2.

Changes on the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet

Chart

Download The Full Eco Flash

BNP Paribas is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of its designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report constitute our judgements as of the date of this report. BNP Paribas and their affiliates ("collectively "BNP Paribas") may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of the issuers mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities, and or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any issuer mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any issuer referred to in this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an issuer mentioned in this report. Any issuer mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy. This report was produced by a BNP Paribas Group Company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US broker-dealer, to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate only when distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp. United Kingdom: This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas London Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its designated investment business in the United Kingdom and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for Private Customers in the United Kingdom as defined in FSA rules and should not be passed on to any such persons. Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions permitted by regulation. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch. Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Licensed Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and is deemed as a Registered Institution by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Advising on Securities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance Transitional Arrangements. Singapore: This report is being distributed in Singapore by BNP Paribas Singapore Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Singapore is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is exempted from holding the required licenses to conduct regulated activities and provide financial advisory services under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisors Act. © BNP Paribas (2011). All rights reserved.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends slide to fresh two-week lows near 1.0400

EUR/USD extends slide to fresh two-week lows near 1.0400

Following a short-lasting recovery attempt in the early European session, EUR/USD has met fresh bearish pressure and declined toward 1.0400. The dollar continues to gather strength amid risk aversion as investors await the PCE inflation data from the US.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD stays below 1.2150 ahead of US data

GBP/USD stays below 1.2150 ahead of US data

GBP/USD is having a tough time gaining traction and trades below 1.2150 on Thursday as the dollar holds its ground in the risk-averse market environment. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis' PCE inflation data will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

GBP/USD News

Gold stays on the back foot, retreats toward $1,810

Gold stays on the back foot, retreats toward $1,810

Gold has lost its traction and declined toward $1,810 following a consolidation phase in the early European session. Although the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down more than 1%, the broad-based dollar strength weighs on XAU/USD. 

Gold News

Breaking: Bitcoin price drops below $19,000

Breaking: Bitcoin price drops below $19,000

Bitcoin price has breached a critical area of support over the past few hours, dipping below $19,000. Transaction history shows that a large number of addresses acquired BTC above $20,000. 

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!

BECOME PREMIUM

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures