Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/CHF 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: USD/CHF is in a good position to extend last week’s recovery. The currency pair has recently formed a high-quality channel and broken through the long-term SMA to the upside, signalling that the US Dollar is likely to keep appreciating against the Franc. Accordingly, the base scenario is a rebound from 0.9770 and a subsequent up-leg towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the pattern at 0.9820. However, there are arguments against the rally—the Greenback is overbought, being that three fourths of positions are long. In case the rising support line fails to trigger strong buying, the price will presumably decline to 0.9750/40, where demand area is implied by the weekly pivot point and the 200-hour SMA.
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Last week it seemed that USD/ZAR was forming a symmetrical triangle after a sharp decline of Mar 16 and 17, which implied continuation of the sell-off. Nevertheless, the rate rebounded from the lower edge of the pattern and breached the triangle to the upside, giving way for a new pattern, as ascending channel. For the time being, however, USD/ZAR is undergoing a bearish correction, and the price is likely to slide down to 15.34 before another bullish wave that is to extend up to 15.67. As for the long-term, the US Dollar has the potential to appreciate up to 15.90 rand, but should top out there and begin falling due to the major down-trend resistance line that connects the January and March highs.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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