• Yesterday was a down day for the currencies & metals.

  • China puts the kyboshes on further renminbi appreciation, for now... 

Good day, and a Tom Terrific and Manfred the Wonder Dog day to you! Looky there, I remembered! Amazing things happen every day, and me remembering something from last week, is one of them! I can recall things that went on 10 years ago, but I can’t even begin to tell you what I wrote about last week! UGH! Well, as I told you yesterday, I have lymphedema in my legs, and they’re going to send me to a lymphedema therapist… this is getting crazy folks! As I was telling my good friend, Dennis Miller last night, the deck is stacked against me once again… But the dealer doesn’t know who he’s dealing cards to! Man, have I got a treat for you today! Yes, you’ll have to get through the letter to the FWIW article today, but trust me, you’re going to want to get there! Jack Johnson greets me this morning with his song: Drink The Water… 

Well, Friday was an up day, and Monday was a down day, what will the markets bring us today? Wait! I don’t mean to say the “markets” for they couldn’t bring us anything any longer, it’s all manipulated… Stocks, bonds, currencies, metals, have all lost their price discovery and so what we’re left with is trader sentiment, that is heavily influenced by the price manipulators…

At first glance this morning, I’m seeing some signs that the back and forth, up one day down the next trading could be coming to an end… Unfortunately for non-dollar holders that’s not going to be a good thing! Gold which was down $8.70 to close at $1,922 is flat to down a buck or two in the early trading today… Silver closed at $25.19, down 4-cents on the day, but is also failing to launch this morning, and is down 14-cents to $25.05...  

But these are small amount that can be reversed easily to turn out to an up day that we're all expecting given the recent trading trend... 

The euro had clawed itself back above the 1.18 handle during the day yesterday, but in the overnight markets has fallen back below the 1.18 figure… When will traders all get the memo that inflation is coming, and it will eat away the value of the dollar, and that they should be getting rid of them as quickly as possible?

One quick note here on the euro... I read a note from Christine Lagarde the head of the ECB, where she mentions that the "ECB is seriously looking at the creation of a digital euro... She also mentioned that the new digital euro wouldn't replace "ever" replace the euro, just be a supplement to the the cash euro.... "  

This has got to be another blow to the Bitcoiners of the world... Since the pandemic, we've had the U.S. and China both say they are developing their own respective digital currencies, and now the Eurozone has joined them...  

It’s really been so long, and I mean a long time since we saw real inflation, like we’re seeing now… And while it’s still climbing higher, people aren’t seeing it… and I’m wondering why? How can you not see that inflation is creeping higher? Oh, you don’t do the grocery shopping, you don’t write the checks for insurance, or tuitions, you haven’t priced a new car, or anything like that, for that’s the only way you could be oblivious to this rising inflation…

Oh, you won’t see it in the stupid CPI (Consumer inflation index) because, well, I know I’m going to sound like a broken record here, but people need to know what the gov’t is doing to pull the wool over your eyes… This all goes back to the mid 90’s when Clinton was the president, he called then Fed Chairman, Allan Greenspan to his office and inquired as to why interest rates were so high? Greenspan replied, because inflation is high… Clinton responded, then it’s your job to figure out how to get inflation down so that interest rates can be reduced, and housing can be afforded by all!

Greenspan hired the Boston Commission to figure out to deal with inflation… And they came up with what I call an hedonic adjustment…. Inflation before the mid 90’s was forever and a day calculated by taking the same items in a basket and pricing them each month… the hedonic adjustment the Commission recommended was to “substitute pricy items with less pricy items, and voila! Inflation was no more, and interest rates came down, which began the root system of the Housing Crisis in 2008…

Ok, back to today…. So, did you hear what China did? The put the kyboshes on future renminbi appreciation… Now, why did they go and do a thing like that? Because, they can… And they don’t need to hire a PPT to do the dirty work… the renminbi’s appreciation in recent weeks, has gotten ahead of itself, and this is just a way to temper the expectations of more appreciation…

And that news will also put the kyboshes on the Sing dollar’s appreciation… Well, as long as these two maintain their current levels, that’s a good sign… 

The Euro-Wannabes, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, and Czech Koruna have been champing at the bit to go into rally mode... But the euro wallowing around 1.18 and not making a strong move higher, has held the euro-wannabes back for now... Remember what I've always told you, that you can tell a rout on the dollar is on the docket, when these three currencies get in gear...  

Not that the price of the euro doesn't give you that indication, it's just another confirmation to use, that's all... The Dollar Index could be used if it wasn't for the fact that it's so heavily weighted with euros... I know there are other "dollar indexes" out there now, but I'm an old dog, that can't be taught new tricks, so I stick with the Dollar Index that I've used for nearly 30 years... 

Well, looky here! I was talking about the stupid CPI above this morning, and what do we have to see in the U.S. Data Cupboard today? That's right! it's the stupid CPI! And that's it! The Data Cupboard is a real bore early this week, as witnessed by the stupid CPI print today... 

So, don't expect to see any sign of rising inflation today folks... Or wholesale inflation tomorrow when PPI prints... These data sets have been so mangled for so long now that they can't, even if they wanted to, be normal... I'm just saying! 

To recap today... With Friday's up day, yesterday was a down day for the currencies and metals... Today is starting out iffy, for being a down day, but we'll see what happens as the day goes on, eh? China has decided to put the kyboshes on renminbi appreciation for now, and the ECB is seriously thinking about the creation of a digital euro... Gold is down a buck or two and silver down 14-cents as we start the day today...

For What It’s Worth… OK, I gave this top billing above, and I doubt it will disappoint! It’s my good friend, the Mogambo Guru speaking his mind and longtime readers know that when the Mogambo speaks his mind, well, you have better grab the kids and dogs and hide out in the basement! 

Here’s your snippet: “I could see where this was going, which was my wife grinding me into the ground, picking at me because of my many faults, real or imagined, usually about the damn kids. Usually some jibber-jabber along the lines of her sweetly saying “You know, dear, that the kids and I would love it if you _____ (insert one): paid attention to them, asked them how their stupid day went, stopped being such a jerk, remembered their stupid names, or all of the above.”

So I tried to change the subject from talking about her pet peeve, which is me, to my pet peeve, which is price inflation, the dreaded Deadly Thing That Destroys Economies, since it means that relatives will soon be knock, knock, knocking at my door, begging for a handout just because they are homeless and hungry, and who get really snotty when I tell them to either get lost or drop dead, depending on my mood.

I mean, if I don’t give cash to my own family who endlessly whine about needing to go to the doctor or the dentist or the grocery store, why in hell do they think I would give it to them and their grubby little brats?

Trying to lighten the mood, I delightfully and entertainingly went on about how the government lies to us about price inflation by adjusting actual price increases back down by using hedonic measures, meaning discounting the higher price to reflect some secret extra satisfaction you get from the product or service. For example, suppose a car costs twice as much as last year’s model, but it now comes equipped with fancy hubcaps. Abracadabra, the government reports that because you love those snazzy hubcaps so much that you are willing to pay as much for them as the price of the car itself, inflation in car prices is not 100%, but zero! Zero inflation in price! Zounds!

By this time I am really on a roll, and I am icing the conversational cake by relating that bit of degrading government dishonesty to the ugliness of inflationary reality as reflected in the Chapwood Index showing annual price inflation running at a blistering 10% (which, by the Rule of 72, means prices will double in 7.2 years).

Or, alternatively, you can adjust your Mogambo Inflate-O-Meter (MIOM) with the calculations at ShadowStats.com, showing that price inflation is running at 6%, meaning that prices will double in 12 years (=72/6).

The fancy math is rolling off my tongue like honey, and I foolishly thought that this impressive display of raw mental power by me, an aging but still-studly “hunka-hunka burning love”, would impress her so much that she says “Take me in your muscular arms, my irresistible manly Mogambo, my darling enemy of price inflation, with that wonderful 1,000-horsepower brain!” - The Great Mogambo Guru

Chuck again… I truly admire this man! Years ago, I was supposed to have lunch with the Mogambo Guru when I was in St. Pete, near his home, and my cell phone rang in my hotel room as I was getting to meet him…. Now, my cell phone rarely rings, so I wondered who it was that was calling me. When I answered I heard, “Hello, Chuck, this is Mrs. Mogambo, and he’s not going to be able to meet you today, as he’s had a heart stroke, and is in the hospital..” A couple of years later we did finally get to meet over lunch the last time I was in St. Pete… And every now and then my phone lights up and it says that he’s calling me! I get so amped up! I’ve got another story about the Mogambo and a fruit basket that I’ll tell you some other time…

Market Prices 10/13/20: American Style: A$ .7187, kiwi .6655, C$ .7629, euro 1.1789, sterling 1.3029, Swiss $1.0983, European Style: rand 16.4804, krone 9.1489, SEK 8.7734, forint 305.65, zloty 3.8017, koruna 23.2025, RUB 76.88, yen 105.50, sing 1.3580, HKD 7.7498, INR 74.24, China 6.7156, peso 21.19, BRL 5.5294, Dollar Index 93.22, Oil $40.38, 10-year .76%, Silver $25.05, Platinum $875.00, Palladium $2,404.00, and Gold... $1,921.60

That's it for today... I can't begin to express my happiness in reading the Mogambo Guru again... His writings used to be discussed on the trade desk every time he would get published. My former colleague Ty Keough and I would be in stitches laughing! I know he'll get a kick out the FWIW article today... Well, I'm going to be getting a new doctor's office to visit, as I'm now signed up for lymphedema therapy, which my son the Physical Therapy doctor tells me is a lot of messaging... I received my new glasses in the mail on Saturday, and brother what a difference in my sight! Not that this is a promo for them, but I ordered them through Warby Parker, and everything was very enjoyable about the whole process... OK... time to get this out... The great Billy Squier takes us to the finish line today with his song: My Kinda Lover... and with that, I hope you have a Tom Terrific and Manfred the Wonder Dog Day today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

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