It’s all about the clues in the price action and less about how severe the actual health impact will be at the moment. The bargain hinters are exhausted. That buying is spent. The real money is bewildered, unsure, holding in hope or selling a little. We have not seen the big selling yet. This is something to take into account, if you think we have already seen a big fall. It is all about the leveraged invested broad market long positioning globally, being hit by national border controls being re-instituted. As well as fresh national restrictions in parts of Europe. There will be increased supply chain disruption. All the time inflation will become extreme. Bond buying wound back and increasingly rate hikes globally. None of this is good for a trade dependent nation like Australia by the way. This as previous stimulus measures wear off. In some cases as the vaccination drives begin to wane in efficacy. All of this points strongly to rising health pressures, though manageable, increasing supply chain stoppages , overlaying an already highly vulnerable consumer environment. This is a bear market.

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Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD on the way to 1.1280 key support

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When real rates are negative for a sustained period, is it a sign of looming recession?

We agree that inflation should moderate this year due to the money side of things, but worry that monetary policy is powerless against most of the supply chain issues, commodity prices, greedy consumer goods companies, and that weird labor shortage.

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