The USD has a period of seasonal weakness around the start of June. Over the last 10 years it has fallen 7 times between May 31 and June 10. The average fall has been -0.93% and the maximum fall has -2.82%
Will the USD fall lower at the start of June again?
The USD is looking increasingly like it is close to peak bullishness. The latest CPI print showed a print above expectations for the headline and core, but it was still below the previous reading.
It is unclear whether the US has passed peak inflation but, if it has, the USD could move lower in June.
However slowing global growth can also cause the USD to gain, so the outlook for the USD is far from clear.
Major trade risks
Further USD gains on persistent US inflation pressures and USD gains on slowing global growth fears could invalidate this outlook.
Our products and commentary provides general advice that do not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data
USD/JPY stays defensive below 151.50 after the release of a soft Japan's CPI report and mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data on Friday. Japanese verbal intervention also weighs on the pair amid the holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. US PCE inflation awaited.
AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull
AUD/USD is trading listlessly above 0.6500 in the Asian session amid light trading on Good Friday. The Aussie pair shrugs off encouraging comments from China's FX regulator, as price action remains subdued ahead of the US PCE inflation data.
Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data
Gold price flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP
Ripple price has overcome a critical resistance level and flipped into a support floor on the weekly time frame. This development happened while XRP tightly consolidated for roughly 250 days. As this coiling up comes undone, investors can expect XRP to kickstart a massive rally.
Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?
There has been some significant push back from Fed and Bank of England members around the timing of rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan still haven’t physically intervened in the FX market to stem yen weakness although they are threatening to do so.