Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached during the specified period.

Today’s NZD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken from 8am New York time Wednesday until 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Short Trades

  • Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6856, 0.6873, or 0.6902.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trades

  • Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6829 0.6789.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

NZD/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that although the price did not advance it was still holding up as part of a long-term bullish consolidation pattern and is close to some long-term highs. I was more comfortable looking for long trades than short trades over the near term here.

The price moved up to get very close to the nearest resistance level before falling quite hard, as the greenback made a comeback. There was then a bullish bounce at a newly defined area of support at about 0.6829.

The price is still reasonably close to making new highs as part of what is becoming a long-term bullish trend, so it makes sense to be more interested generally in long and not short trades. The problem is that there is major data ahead for both currencies which is likely to cause volatility and directional uncertainty, so it is probably best to stand aside until after both these releases are made, or to trade spikes to key levels that reverse on short-term time frames just after the releases are made.

If the price gets established after the releases above 0.6873 or even 0.6900 this would be a bullish sign, very bullish in the case of 0.6900.

NZDUSD

Regarding the USD, there will be releases of the FOMC Statement, Economic Projections, and Federal Funds Rate at 6pm London time, followed by the usual press conference half an hour later. Concerning the NZD, there will be a release of GDP data at 9:45pm.

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