Mario Blascak, PhD
Independent Analyst
What you need to know before markets open
Main themes:
- UK retail sales slumped -0.8% on total and core sales basis in September.
- Italy defends budget proposal as the EU warns of "unprecedented" breach of common fiscal rules.
- China’s economy rose less than expected in the third quarter this year, slowing down to the slowest growth rate since 2009 of 6.5%.
- Canada’s inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.9% y/y in September paving the way for the Bank of Canada hiking rates next week. For details read my Preview here.
China
- China’s Q3 GDP rose 6.5% y/y, down from 6.7% in the previous quarter and the slowest growth rate since 2009 and will face more headwinds as the trade war with the US escalates.
- China’s September industrial production rose 5.8% y/y.
- China’s retail sales rose 9.2% y/y in September.
Europe
- The Eurozone current account is expected to reach a surplus of €21.4 billion in August.
UK
- The UK retail sales fell -0.8% m/m in September with retail sales excluding motor fuel falling also -0.8% m/m.
- UK public sector net borrowing is expected to reach £4.6 billion in September.
- The Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at the economic club in New York at 6:10 GMT.
Canada
- Employment in Canada increased by 28,800 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP private employment report.
- Canada’s retail sales are seen rising 0.4% m/m in August while retail sales excluding car sales are seen falling -0.2% m/m.
- The Bank of Canada inflation gauge is expected to accelerate to 1.8% y/y in September. For details read my Preview here.
US
- Initial jobless claims reached 210K in the week ending October 12 from upwardly revised 215K a week ago.
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is seen decelerated less than expected to 22.2 in October from 22.9 in the previous month.
- Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles said he expects continued gradual rate hikes and the “optimistic” outlook for the US economy.
- Existing home sales are expected to rise 1.8% m/m in September.
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