Sell-off in risky assets ahead of data

Market Brief

Sell-off in risky assets ahead of data

Risk appetite was reduced in the Asian session despite no clear catalyst suggesting short-term mean reverting behavior. Potentially, the sell-off in risky assets could have been triggered by news that Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee following a conclusive victory in the Indiana primary and Ted Cruz’s confirmation of the end of his campaign. The prospect of a USA President Trump makes everyone, including battled hardened financial professionals, very concerned. Asian regional equity indices were broadly in the red and the Hang Seng fell -0.79%, Shanghai composite -0.03% and ASX down -1.47% reversing yesterday's RBA driven gains. Oil was weak, below $44brl as US inventories indicated expanded stockpiles. Stockpile news added to concerns caused by weakness in China PMI and manufacturing confidence forcing commodity traders to rethink the Asia based recovery story. USD was broadly stronger following recent heavy selling, yet demand volume remains light. EURUSD pulled back from yesterday’s 1.1616 highs to 1.1494. A similar pattern was seen in USDJPY as the pair further corrected off the lows at 105.55, rising to 107.46.

US Fed Lockhart provided some headlines but little real insight. Overall, Lockhart was ambivalent on whether to increase interest rates in June as he indicated concerns that Q1 growth softness could linger. Lockhart stated that the consumer was healthy and that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, while also indicating his disappointment in domestic demand. Finally, he also made reference to Brexit as a source of increased global anxiety. We retain our expectations of one 25bp hike in 2016, most likely in December as the cyclical aspect of US data is likely to shift downwards and volatility generating events will make the hike timing difficult. Without the monetary policy divergent story and rising yield support we do not see a fundamental rationale to buy USD.

Data overnight was light with the New Zealand commodity price index printing -0.8% in April and the Q1 unemployment rate jumping to 5.7% from 5.3% versus an expected 5.5%. NZDUSD fell sharply from 0.6937 to 0.6880 on the disappointing results.

On the docket today the final release of the April Euro area composite & services PMI is due with consensus suggesting a flat 53 & 53.2 read. This will follow a string of PMI reads across Europe and Euro area retail sales giving investors some insight into the economic state of Europe. Yet, following the upward revision to the Euro area April manufacturing PMI there is some upside to today’s reads. In the UK construction PMI is expected at 54.0 from 54.2 prior read. This follows a significantly disappointing UK manufacturing PMI read where weak external demand and uncertainty around the Brexit question has dragged down manufacturing activity in the near term. Deterioration in UK fundamentals and uncertainty over the EU referendum outcome will erase the recent shine on the GBP providing short term selling opportunities. However, the focus of GBP traders will be Prime Minister David Cameron’s questions from the House of Commons Liaison Committee over the June EU referendum. The US will provide plenty of volatility driven data including ADP, trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing, services & composite PMI, factory orders, and durable goods orders. We anticipate further evidence that weaker USD has not helped the US considering the soft international activity. We remain bearish on the USD and view recovery bounced as an opportunity to sell.

Global Indexes	Current Level	% Change
Nikkei 225 Index	16147.39	0
Hang Seng Index	20491.92	-0.89
Shanghai Index	2988.4	-0.14
FTSE futures	6135.5	-0.2
DAX futures	9956	-0.03
SMI Futures	7803	-0.02
S&P future	2052.9	-0.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Indexes	Current Level	% Change
Gold	12871.07	-0.42
Silver	17.29	-0.71
VIX	15.6	6.2
Crude wti	43.62	-0.06
USD Index	93.07	0.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today's Calendar	Estimates	Previous	Country/GMT
SZ 1Q UBS Real Estate Bubble Index	-	1,41	CHF/06:00
SW Apr Swedbank/Silf PMI Services	56	54,9	SEK/06:30
EC Apr F Markit Eurozone Services PMI	53,2	53,2	EUR/08:00
EC Apr F Markit Eurozone Composite PMI	53	53	EUR/08:00
UK Apr Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI	54	54,2	GBP/08:30
EC Mar Retail Sales MoM	-0,10%	0,20%	EUR/09:00
EC Mar Retail Sales YoY	2,60%	2,40%	EUR/09:00
US 29.avr. MBA Mortgage Applications	-	-4,10%	USD/11:00
US Apr ADP Employment Change	195000	200000	USD/12:15
US Mar Trade Balance	-4,12E+10	-4,71E+10	USD/12:30
CA Mar Int'l Merchandise Trade	-1,40E+09	-1,91E+09	CAD/12:30
US 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity	-1,30%	-2,20%	USD/12:30
US 1Q P Unit Labor Costs	3,30%	3,30%	USD/12:30
US Apr F Markit US Services PMI	52,1	52,1	USD/13:45
US Apr F Markit US Composite PMI	-	51,7	USD/13:45
US Apr ISM Non-Manf. Composite	54,8	54,5	USD/14:00
US Mar Factory Orders	0,60%	-1,70%	USD/14:00
US Mar Factory Orders Ex Trans	-	-0,80%	USD/14:00
US Mar F Durable Goods Orders	0,80%	0,80%	USD/14:00
US Mar F Durables Ex Transportation	-0,10%	-0,20%	USD/14:00
US Mar F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	-	0,00%	USD/14:00
US Mar F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	-	0,30%	USD/14:00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.1714
R 1: 1.1465
CURRENT: 1.1396
S 1: 1.1217
S 2: 1.1144

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.4959
R 1: 1.4668
CURRENT: 1.4643
S 1: 1.4300
S 2: 1.4132

USDJPY
R 2: 112.68
R 1: 111.91
CURRENT: 106.94
S 1: 105.23
S 2: 100.78

USDCHF
R 2: 1.0093
R 1: 0.9913
CURRENT: 0.9621
S 1: 0.9476
S 2: 0.9259

• S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot