All market chatter is about Biden's taxes & their impact on shares and cryptos. But let's discuss that ECB decision first-- The economic outlook is improving in Europe, yet you wouldn't know it from Lagarde's Thursday comments after the ECB decision. The yen was the top performer while the kiwi lagged. Biden's tax proposal is discussed below. The Markit surveys are up next. Below are the messages on upcoming EURUSD descent issued to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group 30 mins ahead of the ECB announcement. The volatility & subsequent selloff followed as foretold.

Expectations were for the ECB to leave PEPP purchases unchanged and that's exactly what they did. However there were some who thought the could pre-announce a return to a slower pace in June but that didn't happen and leaks from deliberations showed it wasn't even discussed.

What was more of a surprise was how somber Lagarde remained. Eurozone economic data has improved considerably since the start of the year and consistently beaten estimates. That was seen again Thursday with consumer confidence rising to -8.1 from -10.8.

Lagarde forecast that growth would 'firm' later in the year and said business investment had been good but there was nothing like the show of confidence we saw from the BOC. In offering a hint at why, Lagarde pointed to a lower level of fiscal support.

The euro sagged after the press conference and briefly broke below 1.20. Much of the decline was on risk aversion in large part due to risk aversion on a pending Biden proposal to raise capital gains taxes. That was something he campaigned on but it evidently took the market by surprise Thursday.

Biden's Tax Proposal

The preliminary tax announcement consists of raising the top income tax rate from 37% to 39.6% and levying income and capital gains tax rates for earners of more than $1mn. Combining these hikes with the those from Obama's health care reform, the cumulative capital gains tax rates on the wealthisest bracket would surpass 43%. Markets sold off on the announcement, but it is not unconceivable for markets to push back up to new highs, before a fresh wave of selling hits ahead of the new legislation.

The day ahead features most of the global manufacturing and services PMIs from Markit. The increases in these metrics in the past 2-3 months have been swift but what's particularly stark is the jump in pricing. Every comment in the KC Fed on Thursday was a nod to supply chain disruptions, soaring commodity costs and labour shortages. “It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain issues across all materials and finding anyone who wants to work,” was one. "Entry level pay will need to be increased. This will create pressure on all other positions,” was another.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD recovers within range, lacks follow-through

Encouraging macroeconomic data from the EU and the US boosted risked sentiment, which in turn, helped EUR/USD to advance, currently nearing the weekly high at 1.2075.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD trades around 1.39 after a choppy reaction to the BOE

GBP/USD is trading around 1.39 after an 80-pip move around the BOE's "Super Thursday." The bank announced a slowdown in buying bonds but no change to the overall scope. US jobless claims and elections in Scotland are awaited. 

GBP/USD News

Gold Price Analysis: Gold bears seeking a correction to test bullish commitments

Gold has broken above the $1,800 mark, hitting the highest levels since February. The Confluence Detector is showing that XAU/USD has very few barriers through $1,850. Bears are lurking at resistance structure, eyeing a correction ahead of NFPs.

Gold News

Dogecoin price targets $1 as the chase for high-yielding cryptos accelerates

Dogecoin price strength combined with the complementary volume highlights the continued fascination in the digital token, portending further gains in the days ahead.

More Dogecoin News

US Nonfarm Payrolls April Preview: When the economy booms, its all about rates

The US labor market’s stars appear aligned for April.The economy is expanding rapidly, employers are confident and consumers eager to throw off the restraints of the past year.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures