Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bulls stay hopeful whilst above $1,846, US PCE inflation eyed

• Gold Price looks to extend the rebound from 200-DMA this Friday.
• The USD melts amid risk-on trading, cooling off aggressive Fed tightening bets.
• XAUUSD is supported at 100-SMA on the 4H chart, more gains likely?

Gold Price once again found buyers at the critical 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) near $1,840 on Thursday, having staged a late rebound to settle above the $1,850 psychological barrier. The safe-haven US dollar resumed its ongoing corrective downtrend as risk-on flows returned on better-than-expected earnings at the Chinese tech companies. Upbeat earnings led the Wall Street rebound, lifting gold prices in the American session.

Further, downbeat US Q1 GDP revision and Pending Home Sales data added to the dollar’s weakness, aiding the gold price rebound. The US economy shrank 1.5% YoY in Q1, a slight downward revision from its first estimate of 1.4%. Meanwhile, the US Pending Home Sales plunged to two-year lows of 3.9% last month to 99.3, marking the sixth straight monthly decline.

In the first half of Thursday’s trading, XAUUSD slipped after the dollar paused its sell-off amid a cautious market environment, as growth concerns persisted, thanks to the covid lockdowns in China and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war.

Gold Price is building on the previous rebound on the final trading day of this week, as the greenback loses further ground amid the risk-on trading on the global markets. A positive close on Wall Street overnight helped the Asian markets rally while investors also took comfort from the Fed minutes showing a pause to its rate hikes is on the cards later this year. The US dollar index meandered in monthly lows, boding well for the USD-priced precious metal. The US Treasury yields also remain on the back foot amid cooling expectations of aggressive Fed tightening in the coming well, lending support to the non-yielding commodity.

Investors now look forward to the US PCE inflation gauge for the next trading impetus in the metal, as the data will help provide further insights on the Fed’s rate hike outlook this year. The Fed’s preferred core inflation gauge is expected to have risen by 0.3% in April. Meanwhile, the prevalent risk sentiment and the end-of-the-week flows could also influence the gold price action.

Gold Price Chart: Four-hour chart

Gold Price is extending its range within a symmetrical triangle on the four-hour chart, having succeeded to defend the rising trendline support, then at $1,842.

The bright metal also managed to defend the 100-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,846, despite testing bullish commitments below the latter on multiple occasions over the past 24 hours.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching higher above the midline, suggesting that buy-the-dips trading is likely to remain on the table for XAUUSD bulls.

 The renewed upside in gold price will gain acceptance on a four-hourly candlestick closing above the horizontal 21-DMA resistance at $1,856.

The next critical target is the falling trendline resistance at $1,861, which bulls will have scale on a convincing basis to validate an upside break from the triangle.

Further up, the two-week highs of $1,870 will be put to test, opening doors for a fresh upswing towards the $1,900 mark.

Alternatively, if bears yield a sustained break below the 100-SMA, it will automatically invade the triangle support as well, confirming a downside break.

Although the bullish 50-SMA at $1,842 could come to the immediate rescue of gold buyers.

All in all, the yellow metal appears to continue its recent range play, with risks skewed to the upside in the near term.