Gold market analysis: XAU/USD holds support as bulls eye the ATH again

Gold remains one of the strongest-performing macro assets of Q4, holding elevated levels despite short-term volatility and repeated retests of intraday support. The charts show a market that refuses to break down, even as price stalls beneath the $4,245 pivot. Each dip toward the mid-$4,100s is met with renewed buying interest, signaling that the structural bid beneath gold remains intact.

This is typical behavior for a market preparing for a larger move. Gold is not distributing — it is coiling.

Gold’s strength is still driven by rate-cut expectations

As the Federal Reserve leans back toward a December rate cut, gold continues to benefit:

• Rate cuts weaken the US Dollar, giving gold room to appreciate.
• Lower yields decrease the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
• Investors tend to rotate toward defensive assets during policy-transition periods.

The market is not pricing an aggressive easing cycle — but the expectation of even a single cut is enough to keep gold supported near highs.

Geopolitical uncertainty and the resilience of commodity demand add to this underlying bid.

Compression below resistance

Your charts show a few important structural points:

1. The all-time high is fixed at $4,381, a clear external liquidity pool.
2. Gold is repeatedly testing the $4,245 short-term high, yet refuses to break down.
3. The recent pullback into the order block near $4,170–$4,190 formed a clean reaction.
4. Price is now hovering beneath resistance, forming higher-timeframe acceptance.

This zone — between the order block and $4,245 — is acting as gold’s “reloading range.”

The market is waiting for clarity, but buyers remain in control.

Technical outlook

• Price is hovering around the $4,200 handle, moving sideways rather than forming a downtrend.
• The order block at the 0.705–0.79 retracement continues to hold as a foundation.
• Wicks show absorption on the downside; rallies show controlled momentum, not distribution.
• Gold is forming a higher-timeframe coil, often a precursor to directional expansion.

If the structure was weak, gold would have already broken below the order block. Instead, it stabilizes.

Bullish scenario

A bullish continuation will unfold if:

• Gold holds above the $4,170–$4,190 order block.
• Price reclaims the $4,245 short-term high with conviction.
• DXY continues to stall inside its compression range.
• The Fed reinforces dovish expectations in December.

Under this scenario, gold likely attacks:

• $4,300 (round-number magnet).
• $4,350 (continuation target).
• $4,381 all-time high (liquidity draw).

A breakout above $4,381 opens a path toward $4,450–$4,500 later in the month if momentum persists.

Bearish scenario

A deeper pullback emerges only if:

• Gold loses the order-block region ($4,170–$4,190).
• US Dollar strength returns on reduced rate-cut odds.
• Yields bounce sharply and remove gold’s defensive bid.

Downside levels to watch:

• $4,130.
• $4,080.
• $3,980 (major daily imbalance fill).

However, the current structure does not yet indicate distribution — dips remain corrective, not trend-shifting.

Final thoughts

Gold remains fundamentally and technically supported as December progresses. With the Fed leaning toward a rate cut, the US Dollar trapped in range, and geopolitical tension sustaining safe-haven flows, the path of least resistance for gold still leans higher.

As long as gold continues to defend the $4,170–$4,190 zone, the market maintains a clear upside bias.

This is a textbook bullish consolidation beneath a major high — the kind of structure that often precedes expansion, not reversal.