Financial astrology for the successful investor and trader

1. DECEMBER MARKETS                                                                     
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS

3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES                        

4. QUOTES

5. LETTERS 

 

1.     1. Our strategy to continue stock trading buys on non-fundamental weakness until the week before December FOMC has offered mixed but largely profitable results so far.

Our advice: Continue to lock in or prepare to sell ALL stocks you don't want to own in 2019.

If/as “reasonable” Price Targets have been reached or exceeded AGAIN, it is will be time to Protect (stops), Rotate and/or selectively Distribute/Sell.

If you are not an active trader, it is wise to protect profits with appropriate trailing stops, but also not to miss the part of the upcoming TRADE WAR VICTORY RALLIES.

We continue to use stops and hedging, raising cash and/or writing calls promotes sound sleep.

New trades & investments best in Long/Short Pairs

 

BOTTOM LINE:

Given some inflation, high geopolitical risk, trade war and emerging market concerns as well as frequent overvaluation,

it is never wrong to Take/Protect profits ahead of the December FOMC meeting.

While many “concerns” are merely noise; however, two factors we are watching are:

The market’s short term reaction to trade wars and

The December FOMC meeting anticipation & reactions:

NOTE: A Fed interest rate increase in January and/or December can trigger a short term drop in markets. 

Likewise, “3 rather than 4” interest rate increases in 2018, will trigger a short term rally in markets.

 

Proper Valuations:

TIPS  110 OB

US 10 Year Bond  3.05+

IMHO “Improper” Valuations

DJIA < 24464

OIL < 55

COPPER < 3.20 

BITCOIN > 2500

GOLD < 1375

SILVER < 18

 

TRADING NOTES

We are cautiously bullish: given the strength of the US economy, abundant company profits as well as President Trump’s 2018 Horoscope.

While DJIA, NASDAQ & SPX HAVE ALL REACHED POTENTIAL PROTECT ZONES as forecasted, they easily can rally higher as THE US TRADE WARS ARE WON! 

Note we do not plan to short aggressively before early 2019 (or Late December 2018)

 

CURRENT POSITIONAL TRADES: 

Triple Long DJIA  23860, 23960 & 24,334

Triple Long Gold 1290, 1280 & 1266

Triple Short Bonds 2.86, 2.78 & 2.84

Triple Short BTC 19,000, 7400, 6200 

 

TRADING HEDGES: 

Sell Oil 73.50/Buy Copper  2.95  Oil unwound 68.00 Resell 72.50 unwound 64 Long Oil 55 Sold 58  Long 51

Sell Oil 74.00/Buy Copper 2.83   Oil unwound 66.20  Resell 74 unwound 66 Buy 48

Sell Oil 73.33/Buy Copper 2.75   Oil unwound 68.20  Resell 76 unwound 68

 

Buy Gold 1188/Sell BTC 6380

Buy Gold 1182/Sell BTC 6650

Buy Gold 1196 /Sell BTC 7370

 

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FORTHCOMING: Register here to attend our 11.55am December 21 Shindig webinar:

KEY DATES:      NOVEMBER 30, December 19, 21

DJIA:                    24268/24464 DUAL PIVOTS

SPX:                     2625/2650 DUAL PIVOTS

NASDAQ:           7000 PIVOT 
GOLD:                 1225 PIVOT

SILVER:              1400 SUPPORT R1 14.50  R2 15.50 R3 16 R4 18

OIL:                      S1 50 S2 48  S3 46  R1 55  R2 58 R3 60

COPPER:             STEADY ACCUMULATE: H2 2018-2019 à3.50+

US 10 year          Sell 3.05 OB IT à3.20

BITCOIN:             4200 RESISTANCE S1 38000 S2 3000  S3 2500 H2 2018 à 5000 OL BULLS EYE!

TIPS:                    TIP H2 2018 à 1.08

The Market Marker remains some cautious concern.

 

2017 CLOSE:          DJIA 24719 SPX  2673 & NASDAQ 6903

2016 CLOSE:          DJIA 19762 SPX  2238 & NASDAQ 5383

2015 CLOSE:          DJIA 17425 SPX  2044 & NASDAQ 5007

AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1375
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

 

1.      2. We are basically doing little beyond making Holiday plans.

·         AS markets drop, we will BUY. Should markets retest highs (Trump/Xi happy face meeting or FOMC sanity-not to raise rates in December) we will SELL/STOP thereafter.

·          

2.      BUSINESS & BANQUETS

At last week’s November Natural Resource Luncheon, we presented four companies which we confidently feel with provide comfortable investment returns using a two year horizon.  They were:

ALEXCO Resources  (AXU: NYSE), AMERICAS SILVER (USAS: NYSE),  AURANIA (ARU: TSXV) & MAG Silver (MAG: NYSE).

 

3.       3. In Bullish Shift, Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs 

HW: Follow the money! A break above $1240-1250, could likely test $1300 in short order.

We continue to recommend Maximum Allocation or fresh precious and base metal investments for the  intermediate and long term, given that the precious metal sector and copper are obviously very undervalued!

Despite headwinds from US interest rates rising, happily, there will be less competition from MMJ & Bitcoin “investors” as time goes on.

A  $1400 test in 2019 target seems reasonable. With seasonal strength upon us and with unfavorable astro ending, we advise patient precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.

·         Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.

·         For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!

Gold FV $1375 = Commodity FV: 1332 + Currency FV: 1380 + Inflation Metal FV:1380 + Crisis FV: 1408.

Gold/Silver ratio à 74  Silver FV $18+.

INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2018 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).

We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver our first selling numbers remain $20+. 

 

4.       4. “Being long gold has been a tough investment since 2012, and so often, when we see the yellow metal gaining traction, the [U.S. dollar] regains its mojo, and we see the inevitable reversal. However, as we look into our crystal ball and gaze into 2019, emerging warning signs can be seen that suggest 2019 could be the year where gold bulls finally get their day in the sun.”

5.       Chris Weston, head of research, Pepperstone Group

6.       HW: We believe holding Gold will be a nice XMAS present in 2019 or 2020.

7.        

“The truth of the matter remains that rising global crude supply coupled with worrying signs of slowing demand have written a recipe for disaster for the oil markets.  With an appreciating dollar rubbing salt into the wound, the outlook for oil prices points to further downside.”

Lukman Otunuga, research analyst, FXTM.

HW: We Believe Oil belongs at lest $55-$60.  Hence we are buyers 48-51 with stops under $46.

 

“Everyone who still believes in cryptocurrency bought all they could afford months ago and now there is no one left to buy.”

Jani Ziedins, journalist, Cracked

HW: 1000 before 10,000; 2000 before 8000 and/or 3000 before 5000?

 

5. THIS LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK.

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