The Big Story yesterday went unreported—the TICS report showed China raised its holdings of US Treasuries by $4.2 billion and Japan, by $2.2 billion. So much for diversifying out of dollars because of the deficit or Trump or any other reason. Nobody even bothers anymore to take the old-timey Excel files published by the Treasury and make a pretty chart.

Today we get March industrial production, including manufacturing, which was lousy in Feb. Tomorrow is Feb trade numbers and the Beige Book, with retail sales on Thursday when everyone will be eyeing the door.


Something to close on: Chicago Fed Pres Evans said the Dec hike was not a mistake and he will be happy to leave rates alone until fall of 2020 (which is when we hold the next presidential election). We say this looks a lot like an offer to Trump—shut up about the Fed being wrong and bad and we will give you something you want—no more hikes. To help that outlook along, the Fed is newly investigating whether it somehow got the employment mandate wrong. The scope of the new study is not clear. It may end up changing the percentages or something. We have long argued the data is bad in several ways. From an economist’s perspective, a fresh look into the Phillips curve is a good thing and (obviously) overdue. From a voter’s perspective, it’s as though the Fed is climbing into bed with the Orange Menace to save tis skin.

Bottom line, we got nothing. We have no fresh news or perspectives today, however hard the analysts strive to make hay out of straw and old straw, at that. Trust the charts but draw plenty of them to avoid pre-judging and suffering from the consequences of confirmation bias.

Note to Readers: We will not publish any reports on Thursday or Friday. Publication resumes the following Monday, April 22.


This is an excerpt from “The Rockefeller Morning Briefing,” which is far larger (about 10 pages). The Briefing has been published every day for over 25 years and represents experienced analysis and insight. The report offers deep background and is not intended to guide FX trading. Rockefeller produces other reports (in spot and futures) for trading purposes.

To get a free trial, please write to ber@rts-forex.com and you will be added to the mailing list..

This morning FX briefing is an information service, not a trading system. All trade recommendations are included in the afternoon report.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Snaps four-day winning run, but bull breakout still valid

EUR/USD fell 0.28 percent on Tuesday, engulfing Monday's high and low and ending the four-day winning streak. The currency pair however, defended the former resistance-turned-support of the 200-day MA.


GBP/USD retraces from 5-week high amid fewer fresh catalysts from UK

While renewed fears of no-deal Brexit and less dovish Fed speak dragged the GBP/USD pair back from a month’s high, the Cable trades little changed near 1.2690 during early Wednesday.


USD/JPY: Bulls back in charge, re-takes 107.50

The less dovish rhetoric from a selection of Fed speakers overnight continues to aid the post-FOMC US dollar recovery, prompting the USD/JPY pair to retest the midpoint of the 107 handle despite negative Asian equities. 


Conference Board Consumer Confidence: The China syndrome

The index declined to 121.5 in June from April’s revised 131.3. A much more modest drop to 131.2 had been predicted.  “The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence,” wrote Lynn Franco.

Read more

Gold bulls target $1485/oz

Gold prices rallied in Asia but stalled and started to deteriorate in European markets into consolidation before a sell-off emerged on the back of less dovish than expected rhetoric from Fed speakers on New York.

Gold News