EURUSD: 1.1807
EurUsd set a new trend low on concerns that the 5 Star/League Parties are about to form an Italian Government with a proposal that the ECB write off the Italian government debt, sending shudders through the markets, but having fallen to 1.1762 it then bounced and has since consolidated near 1.1800. We may chop around here for now but Italian politics, ECB & Fed speakers will be the risks today.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed- Bullish Divergence
Daily Indicators: Down -Becoming Oversold
Weekly Indicators: Turning lower.
Preferred Strategy: The bounce off the trend low at 1.1762 now sees the hourlies pointing higher, and with the 4 hour charts showing some bearish divergence, this may be a hint that a correction higher is due within the overall downtrend.
If so, on the topside, resistance will be seen at minor levels up to the 1.1853 session high and then again up to 1.1900. If 1.1900 can be overcome, then look for a possible return to the Fibo level at 1.1930 although this looks doubtful today.
On the downside, below 1.1760 there is little support to be seen ahead of 1.1700/10 although I don’t think we are going there today, and buying dips may be a play right now, looking for a squeeze back to 1.1900.
Short term: Buy EurUsd @ 1.1750. SL @ 1.1695, TP @ 1.1850
Medium Term: Sell EurUsd @ 1.1925. SL @ 1.2005, TP @ 1.1785
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1930 | (23.6% of 1.2475/1.1762) | 1.1787 | (76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555) |
| 1.1900 | Minor | 1.1762 | Session low |
| 1.1875 | Minor | 1.1750 | Minor |
| 1.1853 | Session high | 1.1737 | 18 Dec low |
| 1.1820 | Minor | 1.1716 | 12 Dec low |
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Trade Balance – Mar, Construction Output – Mar, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey – May
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