EurUsd has fallen back to the year’s low at 1.1819, coming under pressure after some soft EU data and then later in the day by a firm US Retail Sales reading. German/EU CPI and US Housing Data in focus today. ECBs Draghi/Coeure will both be speaking, as will the Fed’s Bostic/Bullard.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Down
Daily Indicators: Down -Becoming Oversold
Weekly Indicators: Turning lower.
Preferred Strategy: The Euro has so far pulled up at the 9 May low and currently sits right on the 55 WMA.
While the dailies look a little oversold, the 4 hour charts are heavy and the weeklies are also pointing lower, so if we get back below 1.1815/25 we should find minor bids at 1.1800, below which allows for a run towards 1.1785, and beneath that there is little support to be seen ahead of 1.1700/10.
On the topside, resistance will be seen at minor levels up to 1.1900, although right now I would be surprised to see the Euro back above 1.1875/80. If 1.1900 can be overcome, then look for a possible return to the session high of 1.1938 although this looks doubtful, but would be a decent level to sell into should we get there. Ahead of that, surging US yields seem set to underpin the dollar so selling rallies near1.1800/1.1900 seems to be the plan today I think.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.1885. SL @ 1.1925, TP @ 1.1785
|1.1995||14 May high||1.1837||55 WMA|
|1.1975||(23.6% of 1.2475/1.1822)||1.1822/19/16||9 May low/Session low /22 Dec low|
|1.1900||Minor||1.1787||(76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555)|
Economic data highlights will include:
Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting, German CPI/HICP, EU CPI, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation –Apr, Speeches: ECBs Draghi/Coeure, Fed’s Bostic/Bullard
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