Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
The bulls will have been disappointed by Friday’s latest retreat. The move is now testing important support of the $1.1085 January low but also the rising three and a half month uptrend. The positive medium term outlook for the euro is under growing pressure now. In the past few weeks, the decline back from $1.1240 has be giving some mixed signals, but the magnitude of the bear candles compared to those on the positive side is a growing downside risk. Near term trends both lower and higher have been breaking in recent weeks but there is a growing slip back towards a three and a half month uptrend that comes in at $1.1070 today. Momentum indicators remain in positive medium term configuration but equally seem to be set up around medium term crossroads levels, with the RSI around 45 (lows of recent months have been between 40/45) whilst MACD lines are back around neutral. A close below $1.1065 (the late December low) would be an outlook changer. Until then, hovering around $1.1100 (an old pivot) will be seen as an opportunity for the bulls.
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