Yuri Papshev
Independent Analyst
As it was stated in the minutes of the Fed published yesterday, "the majority of the participants in the meeting considered that if the incoming economic information meets their expectations, then it will soon be appropriate for the Committee on Open Market Operations to take the next step”. Although the Fed leaders believe that "soon the time will come" to raise interest rates, there were no exact dates for the beginning of the rate hike. All this begins to resemble last year's picture, when throughout the year the Fed and its leaders received signals and hints of "an early rate hike." However, the rate was raised last year only once in December.
Protocols disappoint investors. The dollar declined after the publication of the minutes. As a result of yesterday, the pair EUR/USD has risen by about 35 points, and today the pair EUR/USD growth continues from the opening of the trading day.
Nevertheless, investors' opinion about the rates has not changed. According to the CME Group, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 83.1%, in July - 84.4%, in September - 88.6%.
Today, OPEC will be the focus of investors' attention. It is widely expected that the agreement on the reduction of oil production will be extended for another 9 months. However, investors will closely monitor the accompanying statements by OPEC on further plans. Some economists doubt that the decision to extend the deal will have the desired impact on the excess supply.
However, today the price of oil and commodity currencies can get a good incentive for growth. The fall of the dollar against commodity currencies can move to other dollar pairs, including the EUR/USD pair.
In general, the positive dynamics of the pair EUR/USD remains. The targets for the pair's growth are still the levels of 1.1280 (Fibonacci level of 23.8% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level), 1.1340 (144-period moving average on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0840
Resistance levels: 1.1280, 1.1340
Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1210. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Objectives 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0840
Buy Stop 1.1255. Stop-Loss 1.1210. Objectives 1.1280. 1.1340, 1.1400
Interested in EUR/USD technicals? Check out the key levels
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