EUR/USD: Euro on hold near 1.0750 as FOMC meeting and political unrest in Germany are next on the agenda

The single European currency is in a defensive mode trying to develop a mild reaction momentum after yesterday's sharp losses in the wake of Donald Trump's election victory.

As the dust seems to have settled after the latest developments and the triumph of the new US president the exchange rate is expected to follow macroeconomic data.

Τhe European currency managed to react and temporarily move away from the 1.07 level fully confirming my thoughts as expressed in yesterday's article. Νevertheless the risk of the 1.07 level being challenged again remains elevated, especially after and the latest developments in Germany where the risk of political uncertainty is increasing.

Despite the significant problems facing the German economy of late, it continues to remain the steam engine of the European economy and any political unrest that may have unpredictable ramifications is likely to affect the European currency quite negatively.

The European currency is likely to find obstacles in its bid to continue the reaction as the dust from Trump's triumph has yet to fully settle, while investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of the all-important Fed meeting later in the day.

The 25 basis point cut in key rates is fully discounted and any other decision will be a significant surprise and shock the markets.

Today's agenda is complemented by a plethora of macroeconomic data such as retail sales in the eurozone and  US Initial Jobless Claims, but in any case all of the above will remain in the shadow of Fed's meeting.

As the surprise is highly unlikely to happen, investor interest will focus on the Fed Chairman's post-meeting remarks and they will try to decipher Central Bank's future intentions.

I prefer to remain on a wait-and-see attitude, keeping the thought of a possible buy of the European currency in some sharp dip well below the 1,07 level.