EUR/USD analysis: rally extends, despite positive US data

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1756

  • Solid German data triggered a bullish breakout.
  • US inflation at factory levels beats expectations.

The EUR/USD pair is up to its highest for this November, as better-than-expected German data released early London triggered a bullish breakout. Trading around 1.1760 ahead of Wall Street's opening, improved US PPI figures fueled the advance rather than triggering a pullback, as Treasury yields scaled back decline after the report.

German preliminary Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, with the country's economy growing by 0.8% in the three months to September. Inflation was in-line with market's expectations, while the ZEW survey, showed that prospects continue to improve, although the index came below expected, up to 18.7 from previous 17.6,  but below the expected 20.0.  Also out was Q3 GDP for the whole EU, which matched previous reading and market's expectations with 0.6%.

In the US, Producer prices rose more than expected in October, up 0.4% in October, against a 0.1% increase expected, amid higher services' costs. The core reading, ex-food and energy, also rose by 0.4% against the expected 0.2%. In the meantime, European equities struggle around their opening levels, while Wall Street is poised to open marginally lower.

Technically, the short-term picture for the pair is bullish, as in the 4 hours chart, indicators maintain their strong upward slopes despite currently at overbought levels, mostly a result of the latest range rather than because an overextended rally. In the same chart, the price has broken above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA crossing above the 100 SMA, and the price now also above the 200 SMA, this last an immediate dynamic support at 1.1720. Further gains beyond 1.1760 should result in a test of the 1.1800/20 region, where the pair will probably top for the day, as some selling interest will probably appear around the area.

Support levels: 1.1720 1.1690 1.1660                                                                    

Resistance levels: 1.1760 1.1800 1.1840

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD



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