The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Credit Suisse.
EURUSD’s sharp fall below 1.3020/15 reinforces our bearish stance, and we maintain our 1.2787/55 target.
EURUSD fell sharply last week, easily brushing aside our next target at 1.3020/15 - the 50% retracement of the 2012/2014 uptrend, 78.6% retracement of the 2013/2014 uptrend, and measured target from the "head & shoulders" top. Near-term, trend and Fibonacci projection support at 1.2920/08 should be allowed to hold at first for a retracement higher, but with further weakness expected to our core target zone of 1.2787/55 - the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2012/14 bull trend and July 2013 low. While we look for a better floor here, bigger picture, we suspect weakness will now eventually extend towards 1.2200..
Near-term resistance shows at 1.2958, above which can see a move back to 1.3012, and potentially 1.3069. We look for 1.3110 to ideally cap further gains.
CS booked profit on its last EUR/USD short at 1.3025 and now runs a limit order to re-sell at 1.3010.
USD/JPY: The break above 105.48/60 reinforces our bullish stance and we look for a move higher towards 107.34 next.
USDJPY has found renewed strength and prodded above the key barrier at 105.48/60 - the high from January and 61.8% retracement of the entire 2007/2011 decline. We continue to look for a re-test and a sustained break above the latter which should then mark a more significant bull phase for further strength towards 106.52 initially, followed by 107.38. Above here can then aim at 109.40, and then what we deem as tougher resistance at 110.60/111.60.
Near-term support moves to 104.80/73. Below here can see a small top, for a move back to 104.47.
CS runs a long USD/JPY from 104.80 targeting 107.40.
USD/CHF: The surge above .9251/72 should see strength extend to .9505 next.
USD/CHF has utilised basing support now at .9168 as a springboard to surge up through medium-term resistance at .9251/72 – the high from November 2013 and 50% retracement of the May 2013/March 2014 decline. This should open the door to further significant gains for a move to .9372 next, ahead of the 61.8% retracement level at .9505 next. We would expect an initial retracement back from here, ahead of a move to the September price high at .9457.
Near-term support moves to .9240, then .9214, with .9174/68 expected to hold to keep the risk directly higher.
CS booked profit on its last USD/CHF long at 0.9250 and now runs a limit order to re-buy at 0.9240.
AUD/USD: We stay marginally bullish above .9330.
Price and 13-day average support at .9330 needs to hold to suggest the immediate risk is still topside. Resistance shows at .9349 initially, followed by Thursday’s spike high at .9393. A sustained break of the latter should then see a challenge of the downtrend resistance at .9438.
A break below .9330 should confirm a false break higher for a move back to .9263, ahead of key price and “neckline” support at .9244/30. Capitulation of the latter should then see weakness extend towards .9211/02 initially.
CS holds a long AUD/USD position targeting 0.9500.
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