Technical Analysis

EUR/USD remains volatile above 55-day SMA


“Any possibility that euro-zone membership becomes fluid is a negative for the euro, but the market is not yet so concerned with it until other larger countries look like they will be on the same path.”

- WallachBeth Capital LLC (based on Bloomberg)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Yesterday EUR/USD bounced back from the long-term downtrend, the line which is also supported by the weekly pivot point at 1.1234. At the same time, losses were halted by the 55-day SMA at 1.1131, but the market remained volatile amid the Greek crisis. The main target for bears is now being relocated to the 100-day SMA, weekly S1 and the lower Bollinger band around 1.1060, while any sluggish rebound should be immediately rejected by the mentioned resistances in the 1.1230 area.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    The share of SWFX long open positions improved further in the past 24 hours, up from 47% to 48%. Meanwhile, the portion of buy orders on the Euro in 100-pip range from the spot rose to 43%.

GBP/USD to take another shot at the weekly PP


“There is so much uncertainty, speculation, truth and partial truth that many markets are in stasis; waiting to see which way this goes.”

- National Australia Bank (based on CNBC)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    The Sterling declined versus the US Dollar on Tuesday, amid better-than-expected US fundamentals. As a result, the Cable suffered a 44-pip loss, with the 20-day SMA providing support. Nevertheless, the Pound is still likely to regain the bullish momentum today and attempt to stabilise over the weekly PP one more time. The 1.58 area remains the main target, which would give more strength for further growth once taken. Meanwhile, technical indicators keep giving bullish signals in the daily and weekly timeframes.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    Traders’ outlook towards the Cable slightly worsened, as 52% of positions are long today (previously 55%). The share of buy orders, however, inched up from 53 to 54%.

USD/JPY sets eye on 123


“The June Nikkei manufacturing PMI also climbed to 50.1 (49.9 prev). Despite this, USD-JPY however may however remain responsive to risk/broad dollar cues in the near term.”

- OCBC (based on FX Street)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Upon reaching the 122 psychological level, the USD/JPY currency pair was pushed back; however, the Buck still failed to close higher. Ultimately, the Greenback settled at 122.52, giving hopes of a rebound today. Technical studies retain mixed signs, but unless the US fundamental data disappoints, we should see the US Dollar outperform the Yen. Nonetheless, a strong resistance, namely the weekly PP and the 123 major level, is likely to limit the gains.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    Both net positions and net orders improved. Currently 74% of traders hold long positions (previously 72%), while 68% of commands are now to acquire the US currency.

XAU/USD supported by lower Bollinger band


“We are seeing some beginning-of-the-month buying for gold which is pushing up prices slightly today.”

- a precious metals trader in Hong Kong (based on CNBC)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    After falling back below the 2013 low in the evening on Monday, the bullion decided to continue hovering beneath this level the next day as well. XAU/USD attempted to slump toward lower Bollinger band, but was eventually stopped by this demand at 1,165. The short-term outlook is mainly neutral, as suggested by daily and weekly technical indicators, which are pointing sideways at the moment. Any moves are likely to be subdued, but US employment data later this week may still have a substantial impact on the metal's development.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    The total share of long open trades at the SWFX market experienced no major changes from yesterday and it still remains solid at 70%, while bears are in the well-pronounced minority with just 30% of all trades. Bullish sentiment on the market decreased one additional percentage point in the past 24 hours.

This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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