The Dollar

The dollar printed a swing high on Wednesday.

USD

Wednesday was day 20 for the dollar’s daily cycle.  That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle decline.  So the swing high that formed signals the beginning of the daily cycle decline.  The dollar still needs to close below the 10 day MA for further confirmation of the daily cycle decline.  Then it should break below the daily cycle trend line in order to form its daily cycle low.  A break below the previous daily cycle low of 96.98 would form a failed daily cycle which would confirm the intermediate cycle decline.  Currently, the dollar is in daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

USD

The dollar printed a huge bearish weekly candle on week 10.  The previous 3 weekly cycles peaked at either 8 or 9 weeks so there is a good chance that week 10’s bearish candle will send the dollar into its intermediate cycle decline.  A weekly swing high is needed for the intermediate cycle decline.  A break below 98.04 will form a weekly swing high.   The dollar currently is in a weekly uptrend.  The dollar will continue in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

USD

 

Stocks

Stocks broke above the day 6 high on Thursday to right translate the daily cycle.

SPX

Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday and Friday.  Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend.

SPX

This was week 13 for the intermediate equity cycle.  Stocks had been caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA, but now have closed convincingly above the 10 week MA so week can label week 9 as a half cycle low.  Stocks also closed above the upper weekly cycle band which renews the weekly uptrend.   Now that stocks closed above the 10 week MA it is possible for a trending move to develop.  Stops can be placed below the 10 week MA.

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