BTC/USD surged on Friday, breaking above the upper bound of a downside channel that was containing the price action since January 14th. On top of that, the rally brought the price above the 3500 mark, with the crypto hitting resistance near the key obstacle of 3700, before retreating somewhat. In our view, although both the daily and weekly charts still point to a broader downtrend, Friday’s rally may have increased the chances for some further recovery in the short run.

The crypto may continue its current setback for a while more, but if the bulls are willing to take the reins again from near the 3500 zone, or even the 3450 level, then we could see another recovery and another test near the key hurdle of 3700. In order to get more confident with further advances though, we would like to see a decisive close above that level. That barrier provided good support on December 31st and January 4th, while after its downside break on January 10th, it acted as a decent resistance on January 14th. Its break would confirm a forthcoming higher high on the 4-hour chart and may allow bullish extensions towards our next resistance zone of 3840, which is the high of January 4th, after which the price opened with a positive gap.

Looking at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI topped within its above-70 zone and just crossed below 70, while the MACD, although above both its zero and trigger lines, shows signs of slowing down. These indicators suggest that after the rally, the upside momentum has eased, which supports our view for some further retreat before, and if, the bulls decide to take charge again.

On the downside, we would like to see a clear dip below 3330 before we start examining whether the bulls have abandoned the battlefield. Such a move would confirm a forthcoming lower low and could signal the price’s return within the aforementioned downside channel. This could encourage the bears to aim for the 3270 zone, the break of which could carry more bearish implications, perhaps opening the path for the 3130 territory, near the low of December 14th, which is also the lowest point since September 15th, 2017.
















Boost your performance with JFD Brokers’ proven DMA/STP. Don’t change your style, change your broker!


The content we produce does not constitute investment advice or investment recommendation (should not be considered as such) and does not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. JFD Group, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by JFD Group analysts and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his investment decisions. Accordingly, you should seek, if you consider appropriate, relevant independent professional advice on the investment considered. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements for financial analyses and must therefore be viewed by the reader as marketing information. JFD Group prohibits the duplication or publication without explicit approval.

76% of the retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please read the full Risk Disclosure:

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD pressured below 1.0950 after ADP, ISM beat

EUR/USD has is trading below 1.0950, under pressure. ADP's private-sector jobs report has shown a loss of only 27,000 jobs, far better than expected. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also beat with 49.1 points.


GBP/USD battles 1.24 as UK coronavirus death toll jumps by 31%

GBP/USD is trading around 1.24 The market mood is gloomy as coronavirus continues spreading. The UK's death toll jumped by 31% to 2,352. Markets are digesting US data.


Oil prices are poor predictors of recession

Crude price movement before last five recessions are ambivalent. WTI has fallen 66% since January 7 to its lowest price in 18 years. Previous sharp drops in oil did not anticipate downturns.

Read more

Gold: USD 1600 is the major pivot level but is the retracement over?

Gold has been pulling back up since the recent low on March 16th. It's amazing to think that in these uncertain times the price fell to hit a low to USD 1451.32.

Gold News

WTI drops to $20 area after EIA reports huge increase in US crude oil stocks

Crude oil prices came under renewed selling pressure in the last hour after the weekly report published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a huge build-up in crude oil stockpiles.

Oil News

Forex Majors