American FX Outlook: US housing and manufacturing set to headline

What you need to know before markets open:

• One day before the US government shutdown the US politicians heat up for the decision to extend and increase the debt ceiling in order to keep the government afloat.
• After Bitcoin fell as low as $9,200 on Wednesday, the price is recovering trading above 11K today.
• The US Dollar is in the spotlight with the threat of the US government shutdown looking averted while the macro data rather unlikely to provide strong fundamental support.

Thursday’s market moving events

• The US housing starts are seen falling to 1.275 million in December.
• The US building permits are set to decelerate to 1.290 million in December.
• The US weekly jobless claims are expected to reach 250K in a week ending January 12.
• Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is seen reaching 25.0 in January, down from 26.2 in December.
• ECB’s Cœuré in concluding panel on 'A post-crisis agenda for the euro area and Germany: which way forward?' at a joint conference of IMF and Deutsche Bundesbank “Germany – Current Economic Policy Debates” in Frankfurt, Germany at 14:30 GMT.
• EIA crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 3.588 million barrels in a week ending January 12.

Major market movers

• US Dollar is edging lower on Thursday after beginning on a slightly firmer footing.
• The GBP/USD is set to break higher after busting $1.3850 and rising as high as $1.3940 overnight.
• The US benchmark 10-year Treasuries yield 2.6%, setting the stage for a major move higher.

Earlier in Asia/Europe

• Fed’s Beige book provided a positive outlook for the US economy for 2018 with 11 out of 12 regions reporting a modest pickup in economic activity while Dallas reported a robust increase.
• Australian employment rose 34.79K new jobs with the unemployment rate ticking up to 5.5% in December.
• China’s retail sales decelerated to 9.4% y/y in December.
• China’s industrial production rose 6.2% y/y in December.
• China’s Q4 GDP is expected 6.8% y/y, matching the previous quarter.
• Japan’s industrial production rose 3.6% y/y in November well above 1.9% rise expected.
• The joint press conference of German Bundesbank and the International Monetary Fund saw Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann sayings that reduction in German growth potential could translate into lower long-term interest rates. Both ECB and IMF headliners are set to appear in a different panel discussion today before economic data kickoff during the US session.