This installment presents a new framework to predict the two-quarters-out level of the fed funds rate. We compare our framework’s fed funds forecast with the FOMC and Blue Chip's forecasts to examine who is more accurate at predicting the near-term fed funds rate.

Bank Indonesia is the first central bank from the emerging countries in South Asia (excluding the Philippines) to cut its interest rates. This movement, which is expected to be followed by a further interest rates cut before the end of the year, is not expected to be a one-off.

The Eurozone economy is faltering, as today’s PMI data for September highlights, yet it’s the Fed that’s cutting interest rates by 50bps, while the ECB remains on a more cautious rate-cutting path. However, the September PMI data could add some urgency to ECB rate cuts for the rest of this year.

UnitedHealth Group stock, the largest holding in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sank 9% on Tuesday after the US’s largest health insurer reported costs in the third quarter exceeding prior guidance.

Caterpillar closed at $394.06 on Monday, 1.99% lower on the day. Caterpillar's stock price has increased 33.21% so far this year, more than the 13.80% advance registered by the overall DJIA index.