Summary
This month’s Fed rate decision is easily the most anticipated, analyzed and discussed since the financial crisis. The Fed has said it is ‘data dependent’, that economic conditions will determine its policy. That statement is untrue, or rather, it is true only at the extreme. If the U.S. unemployment rate was 7 percent or non-farm payrolls had averaged 100,000 for the past two years then data would indeed determine policy and there would be no rate hike. But that is not the case. American economic data can justify either a rate hike or a continuation of the zero policy. The Fed’s decision will not depend on data but on its view of the outcome. What are the likely effects of a 0.25% rate hike? How much of the effect has already been priced into equities, commodities, credit and currency markets? Will a single quarter point increase followed by a long hiatus have any appreciable impact? Do the distortions of zero rates outweigh the benefits? Join us for a unconventional view of the Federal Reserve decision.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.