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Wakeup Call on Forex Markets

Weekly US ABC Consumer Confidence hits 17−year low

Wed, May 7 2008, 06:57 GMT
by David Karsbøl

Saxo Bank


UK Consumer Confidence also quite weak. Hawkish comments from Fed's Thomas Hoenig has supported USD.


Overnight News Bullets

  • SZ CPI MoM/YoY (Apr), out at 0.8%/2.3% vs. 0.9%/2.4% exp 0.3%/2.6% prior.

  •  E-Z PMI Services (Apr F), out at 52.0 vs. 51.8 exp. 51.8 prior.

  • UK PMI Services (Apr), out at 50.4 vs. 51.7 exp. 52.1 prior.

  • E-Z Euro-Zone PPI MoM/YoY (Mar), out at 0.7%/5.7% vs. 0.7%/5.6% exp. 0.6%/5.3% prior.

  • CA Building Permits MoM (Mar), out at -4.5% vs. 1.2% exp. -1.0% prior.

  • CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Apr), out at 57.6 vs. 54.0 exp. 59.0 prior.

  • US ABC Consumer Confidence (May 4), out at -46 vs. -41 exp. -41 prior.


Markets

  • FX: USD still ranging. AUD edging higher ahead of tonight’s labor market data.

  • Fixed income: JGB’s still under pressure. Treasuries and Bunds slightly lower.

  • Stocks: Negative European session, US And Asia somewhat positive, energy sector the leading mover

  • Commodities: Crude Oil forcefully breaking $120, and recorded a new high of $122.73 now resting just shy of $122 at $121.75.


O/N Data Heat map:

Data heat map


Calendar

Today's Highlights:

Time (GMT) Region Release Consensus
08:30UK Industrial Production MoM/YoY (Mar) -0.125
08:30UK Manufacturing Production MoM/YoY (Mar) 0.0%/1.2%
09:00E-Z Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Mar) 0.2%/-0.7%
09:30UK BRC Shop Price Index (Apr)
10:00GE Factory Orders MoM/YoY (Mar) 0.3%/6.0%
12:30US Nonfarm Productivity (1Q P) 1.50%
12:30US Unit Labor Costs (1Q P) 2.60%
14:00US Pending Home Sales MoM (Mar) -1.00%
14:30US DOE/API Energy Storage. Crude Oil 1625K
19:00US Consumer Credit (Mar) $6.0B
22:45NZ Unemployment Rate (1Q) 3.50%
22:45NZ Employment Change YoY (1Q) 1.30%
01:30AU Employment Change (Apr) 10K
01:30AU Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.10%
01:30AU Participation Rate (Apr) 65.20%


This and Next Week’s Highlights:

Date Region Release
May-08SZ Unemployment Rate
May-08GE Trade Balance, Current Account
May-08SE Industrial Production, Industrial Orders
May-08NO Industrial Production
May-08GE Industrial Production
May-08UK BOE announces Rates
May-08E-Z ECB announces Rates
May-08CA Housing Starts
May-08US Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Wholesale Inventories, EIA Nat gas storage change
Mar-09GE Wholesale Price Index
May-09NO Producer Prices, CPI,
May-09CA Unemployment Rate, Net Change in Employment, Int’l Mercandise Trade
May-09US Trade Balance


What's going on?

  • Rice prices have surged for a forth day as already tight supply levels are further exasperated by the prospect of Myanmar turning into a net importer from a net exporter after the cyclone disaster.

  • ABC Consumer Confidence has hit lowest level since February 1992, coming out at -46 for the month of May. On the break down of index factors, the state of economy has fared the worst of all.

  • The USD has risen against euro following the comments by Fed Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig that serious inflation pressures may cause the bank to hike rates.

  • The double effect from weakening housing market and higher living costs on UK economy is becoming clearer, now with the consumer confidence falling to a lowest in 4 years, or a to an index value of 70, from the prior reading of 77 points.


FX

Break-Out Trade in USDJPY

fx graph

Fx trading strategies

FX Trading Strategies

Pair Supp. Resis. Comments
USDJPY 103.5105.4USDJPY forming an uptrend channel on a daily chart, but risk remains to the downside - confirmation needed. Hence, we play both sides intra-day, buying 104.95 bid, stop offer at 104.80, targeting 105.60. We sell 104.64 offer, targeting 104.00.

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