FXstreet.com

0

0

U.S. Forex Market Commentary

Thu, May 29 2008, 18:22 GMT

GCI


EURO

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5520 level and was capped around the $1.5665 level.  The common currency has now been given for three consecutive days and stops were reached below the $1.5560 level, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.6020 to $1.5280.  Data released in the U.S. today added to the growing consensus that the U.S. economy may have averted the technical definition of a recession in Q1 as Q1 GDP was upwardly revised to an annualized +0.9% rate from the previous estimate of +0.6%.  The Q1 GDP deflator printed at 2.6% and the Q1 core PCE price index ticked lower to 2.1% from 2.2%, still above the Federal Reserve’s perceived upper comfort zone limit of 2.0%.  Also, weekly jobless claims were up 4,000 to 372,000 while continuing jobless claims printed at 3.10 million.  Dallas Fed President Fisher last night hawkishly said the Fed will enact a quick “change of course” if inflation threats worsen.  In eurozone news, EMU-15 May overall economic sentiment was stable at 97.1 as consumer confidence fell more than expected to -15.  It was also reported that German May unemployment rose 4,000 with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 7.9% while German April wholesale sales were up 0.2% m/m and 9.3% y/y.  Additionally, EMU-15 M3 money supply growth registered 10.6% y/y.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.5230 level.

JPN/CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥105.35 level and was supported around the ¥104.60 level.  The pair reached its highest level since 14 May as traders refocused their attention on inflationary pressures in the U.S., growing confident that the U.S. will avert a technical recession. As expected, the Japanese government formally nominated Keio University economic professor Kazuhito Ikeo to become a member of Bank of Japan’s Policy Board. There are currently two vacancies on the Policy Board, including a deputy governorship for which Ikeo may have been nominated.  The issue remains politically contentious, much as the March appointment of now-Governor Shirakawa. Policy Board member Kamezaki today said “As for future monetary policy, we must collect and analyze as much information as possible, including (data from) overseas economies such as in the U.S. and Europe, the global financial market, and moves in energy and (raw) material prices. It is necessary to examine situations without preconceptions, while foreseeing possible (economic) paths.” Data released in Japan overnight saw April retail sales rise 0.1% y/y to ¥11.19 trillion.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 3.03% to close at ¥14,124.47. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥103.00/ 101.35 levels.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥163.30 level and was capped around the ¥164.20 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥208.30 level while the Swiss franc lost ground vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥100.35 level.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9318 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.9444.

STERLING

The British pound weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9675 level and was capped around the $1.9815 level.  The pair retraced some of its intraday losses during the North American session.  Data released in the U.K. today saw May CBU retail sales volumes print at -14, up from -26 in April while the prices sub-index surged to +56, reaching its highest level since May 1992.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Blanchflower reported “Our forecast is that inflation will come down in the medium term, but our concern is that we wouldn't want economic activity to drop dramatically. If there's a sense we are moving to a recession, we will have to make sure we don't.”  It was also reported that Nationwide May house prices were off a record 2.5%.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9360/ 1.9100 levels.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7850 level and was capped around the ₤0.7915 level.

SWISS

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0365 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0485 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw Q1 employment levels rise to 3.9 million from 3.88 million in Q4.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0760 level.  The euro and British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6295 and CHF 2.0710 levels, respectively.

 


Archive

GCI Financial Ltd.  | 831 Coney Drive, Belize City, Belize
http://www.gcitrading.com | info@gcitrading.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

GCI Weekly Highlights is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. GCI Financial Ltd. assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.


Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.