Headlines 

  • Temporary recovery in dollar weights on crude price 

  • Gold returns to 1000$ level 

  •  Profit taking eases base metals, lead higher due to supply disruption in China


Brent and Distillates

Commodities

Commodities
On Monday crude oil prices extended their retreat after a sharp fall in Friday’s session as a temporary recovery in the dollar weakened sentiment towards commodities. Today, oil trades practically unchanged and slightly below 69 $/b, capping losses as buoyant equities and the dollar's fall against the euro helped to offset concerns about an inventory build ahead of the U.S. autumn season.

The EIA projection from September 2009 shows, that OPEC members could earn 559 bln.$ of net oil export revenues in 2009 and 675 bln.$ in 2010. The agency, estimates OPEC's 2008 net export revenues at 971 bln.$, 43 bln.$ below the 1010 bln.$ OPEC itself said it earned last year. For the first eight months of 2009, the EIA estimates OPEC's earnings at 340 bln.$, with Saudi Arabia's revenues at 92 bln.$.

Goldman Sachs expects further increases in OPEC and non-OPEC oil production would be limited and the global oil market would shift into a deficit, pushing petroleum inventories in developed markets lower and oil prices higher. Goldman reiterated its forecast for oil prices to reach 85 $/b by the end of the year and said crude would reach 95 $/b by the end of 2010 as spare OPEC production capacity became exhausted and non-OPEC production declines worsened even as demand strengthened.

Customs data from China showed crude oil imports up 18 % m/m to 17.92 mln.t in August. The rising demand trend may continue as China endeavoured to build a strategic crude oil reserve.

Brazil's Petrobras will boast crude reserves of 30 bln. to 35 bln.b within three years, thanks to huge finds in deep water off the nation's coast, the company's CEO said on Monday. That may give Petrobras around 50 % more reserves than ExxonMobil, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, and help Brazil become one of the top world producers with enough oil to single-handedly supply the world for more than 400 days at current consumption rates.

Nigeria will continue to keep its current OPEC quota despite a steep recent rise in oil production as more militants in the restive Niger Delta take up the government's offer of an amnesty if they agree to surrender arms. The unconditional pardon offered by President to militants who give up arms by Oct. 4 is the most serious attempt yet to resolve years of unrest which has prevented Nigeria from pumping more than two thirds of its oil capacity.

Crude oil output from Vietnam's biggest field, Bach Ho, is expected to fall 12 % next year from 2009 to around 110 kb/d, forcing Petrovietnam to look for crude imports for its refinery, officials said.