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Technical Trader Closing Brief

Indices Now Short−Term Overbought After Post−FOMC Rally

Thu, Mar 19 2009, 05:32 GMT
by Harry Boxer

The Technical Trader  |  View company's profile

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It was a very interesting market today on FOMC announcement day. The indices backed and filled in the morning, were lower for most of the morning session, rallied by mid-day before the FOMC announcement, and then exploded after the FOMC announced the purchase of hundreds of billions dollars worth of treasuries. After a spike up that took the NDX up to 1225 and the SPX up to 803, at key overhead resistance on the SPX and above it on the NDX, the indices then had a sharp pullback that brought them back down by 30 NDX points and about 18 SPX points. In the last 15-20 minutes they bounced again and took back some of the late losses.

Net on the day the Dow closed up 90.88 to 7486.58, the S&P 500 16.23 at 794.35, and the Nasdaq 100 up 14.79 to 1206.96. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) up 7.61 at 228.52.

The technicals were very positive. Advance-declines were about 4 1/2 to 1 positive on New York and about 2 1/2 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was the story, with 1.85 billion traded to the upside on New York and only 213 million on the downside, a 9 to 1 positive ratio. Nasdaq also had a 9 to 1 positive volume ratio, with 2 1/2 billion up and 267 million down on heavy volume of more than 2 3/4 billion.

TheTechTrader.com board was very mixed, but generally most stocks managed to get back into the plus column. Financials were the leaders today, as Wells Fargo (WFC) exploded up 2.56 to 17.22. JP Morgan (JPM) was up 1.97 to 27.11, and Bank of America (BAC) up 1.40 to 7.67. Hartford Financial Services (HIG) at 8.86 was up 1.73 on 51 million.

As a result, the Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) was up 1.55 to 7.16 on 377 million, the heaviest volume in its history. Among other ETFs, the Direxion Large Cap Bull 3X Shares (BGU) jumped 1.52 to 23.15, and the iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ) was up 93 cents to 38.22.

Portfolio position DG FastChannel (DGIT) was up 82 cents to 17.02. General Electric (GE) advanced another 32 cents to 10.32. Rambus (RMBS) was up 80 cents to 10.60, a clear breakout there. Sequenom (SQNM), another portfolio position, added 58 cents to 15.60, and portfolio positions TeleCommunication Systems (TSYS) at 9.24 was up 41 cents and Akamai (AKAM) gained 62 cents to 18.92.

On the downside, the Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) got slammed for 9.24 to close at 26.35. That's down from 115.50 in just 8 sessions. The Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) lost 5.15 to 67.23, and the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) at 55.47 was down 5.85. American Italian Pasta (AIPC) at 30.59 was down 1.56.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices made a significant move today and extended the rally after yesterday's strong session and nice follow-up. But we are extremely extended and very overbought on the oscillators (NYSE McClellan oscillator +358!!) and up against key overhead resistance on the SPX and just above it on the NDX.

I expect that the market could pullback, retest or consolidate over the next 2-3 days based on the extreme overbought condition of the market.

Published on  Thu, Mar 19 2009, 05:33 GMT

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