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Technical Trader Closing Brief

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Volatile Fed Announcement Session Sees Nasdaq Leading Market Higher

Thu, Jun 26 2008, 06:08 GMT
by Harry Boxer

The Technical Trader

The indices ended up on the plus side, but they were quite volatile, particularly after the FOMC made their announcement about keeping interest rates unchanged. They did start out with a gap higher, as pre-market futures indicated the market wanted to open strongly. After that occurred they then developed bull-flag type formations that broke to the upside. Then they had a secondary leg up that reached near overhead resistance and formed multi-hour bullish-looking consolidations before the FOMC announcement.

Just before the FOMC announced they rallied, then dipped sharply, came on again, and then backed off again before coming on very strongly late in the afternoon to the session highs, reaching across 1951 on the Nasdaq 100 and up near 1336 on the S&P 500. But a very late pullback in the last half hour brought them sharply back.

The Dow gave up most of its gains, and closed up just 4.40. The S&P was up 7.68, but closed 14 points off its high. The Nadsaq 100 was up 30, yet it closed 18 points off its high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was about 5 points off its high, up 7 on the session.

The technicals were much better than the prices indicated, with advance-declines positive by 22 to 9 1/2 on New York and by about 9 to 5 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was nearly 2 1/2 to 1 positive on New York on total volume of over 1 1/3 billion, a bit heavier than lately. Nasdaq traded nearly 2 1/4 billion, and had a 4 1/2 to 1 positive ratio, a solid reading on the up/down volume there.

TheTechTrader.com board was very mixed, with some point-plus gainers and losers. On the plus side, the shippers were very strong today. Leading the way was DryShips (DRYS) at nearly 82, up 5.34, just a point off the high. Excel Maritime (EXM) closed at 39 1/2 at the high for the day, up 2.65. TBS International (TBSI) at 38.09 was up 1.59.

Sequenom (SQNM) had an excellent session, closing at 15.94, up 1.69, although that was nearly a point off the high, on 12.2 million traded. It was our Chart of the Day -- see link below.

See Harry's Chart of the Day Video Presentation

There were several other fractional gainers. China Architectural (CAEI) closed at 8.79, up 23 cents. Chindex (CHDX) at 15.70 was up 35 cents. AgFeed Industries (FEED) at 14.05 was up 46 cents, all positive Chinese stocks today.

Portfolio positions Zoltek Companies (ZOLT) gained 36 cents, and 3Par Inc. (PAR) at 8.87 was up 24 cents.

On the downside, loss leaders were the junior oils today by far, as Pyramid Oil (PDO) got smacked for 6.66 on 1 million shares. Royale Energy (ROYL) at 12 was down 1.15, and GeoResources (GEOI) at 18.41 was down 1.48. With the USO down 2.18 and the price drop in oil today, the junior oils were down, while the short instruments in that sector advanced.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices completed head and shoulders type bottoms, and then flagged after the break of the necklines, came on again in the afternoon, but gave back a big chunk of it, particularly on the S&P 500, as the post FOMC announcement obviously increased the level of volatility.

But normally we see the true trend of the market emerge a day or two after the FOMC. So I'm expecting to get a trend thrust in the next day or two that could go either way here. However, the overall trend is still down, and the lower looking channels favor lower levels yet -- unless they can convince us differently with a strong thrust to the upside.

Published on  Thu, Jun 26 2008, 06:10 GMT