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Technical Trader Closing Brief

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The indices had a positive session today ahead of options expiration tomorrow

Fri, Jun 20 2008, 04:52 GMT
by Harry Boxer

The Technical Trader

They came down rather sharply in the morning and took out the recent lows, reaching the session lows about a half hour into it. At that point, they rallied sharply, rolled over retested, made lower lows on the S&P 500 but higher lows on the Nasdaq 100. When the NDX did not confirm, they took off and had a very sharp move, particularly on the Nasdaq 100, breaking out above the highs. The SPX did not confirm the breakout at that point, but the Nasdaq refused to fold, consolidated for an hour and then ran again. The SPX did go along for the ride and make nominal new highs, while the Nasdaq 100 surged up to test Tuesday's weekly high, but they were unable to push through there and pulled back in the last 45 minutes.

Net on the day the Dow managed to get back over 12000 and stay there after getting down to as low as 11,978, closing at 12,063, up 34. The S&P 500 closed up 5 points, just under 1343. The Nasdaq 100 reversed 56 points off its low, closing up over 31 1/2 near 1983. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up nearly 10, about 2 1/2 percent, which certainly didn't hurt the NDX performance.

However, with all the gyrations advance-declines on New York were just 8 issues ahead, nearly flat on the day, and the up/down volume was just a little better than 7 to 6 positive with just over 1 1/4 billion shares traded. Certainly not heavy volume and certainly flat technicals.

Nasdaq was quite a bit better, with advance-declines about 4 to 3 positive, and up/down volume about 2 1/2 to 1 positive. Total volume was stronger today with 2 1/4 billion traded.

TheTechTrader.com board was mixed, however. Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) once again took the spotlight, touching 78.76, another new all-time, closing at 77.98, up 3.79 on very strong volume of 9.3 million shares.

See Harry's Chart of the Day Video Presentation

The shipping stocks were positive, but only narrowly so on some of the them, altough DryShips (DRYS) gained 1.52.

Old favorite Exide Technologies (XIDE), which we highlighted last February at just over 10, closed at 18.80 today, up 1.14, touching 18.92, nearing its all-time high setting 1 1/2 weeks ago.Chart of the Week A-Power Energy (APWR) was up another 1.53 to 30.82.

With oil down sharply today by nearly $5 a barrel, the DUG was up 1.17 to 28.15. A new one we're watching, the new double short oil ETF, symbol DTO, closed at 26.11, up 1.61 today.

On the downside, the junior oils took it on the chin, with Mexco Energy (MXC) reversing 6 points off its high, closing down 3.87. The big loser of the day was Pyramid (PDO), which dropped $10 off its high of $35 before bouncing late, still down 3.60 on the day, a huge reversal there.

Royale Energy (ROYL) was down 1.48 to 9.42, GeoResources (GEOI) down 1.01 to 20.99, and Brigham Exploration (BEXP) down 1.50 to 16.37. Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) lost 94 cents.

The QID, the reverse QQQQ ETF, was down 1.20 today.

So a very mixed session, with some big winners and losers.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices did very well today by rallying back nicely, despite making new pullback lows early in the session. However, the S&P 500 held right at last week's low, and failed to confirm. That was no where nearly approached by the Nasdaq 100.The indices then rallied in a 5-wave advance, getting back to key overhead resistance, which they did not break. That's the 1992-93 zone on the Nasdaq 100 and the 1350-52 zone on the S&P 500.

It certainly remains to be seen if they can advance any further & break KEY overhead resistance. We'll see if there's any kind of follow-through tomorrow, which is options expiration day. TheTechTrader.com is closed --we'll see you at the Traders Expo.

Published on  Fri, Jun 20 2008, 04:58 GMT