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Technical Market Commentary

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JPY is facing resistance at 91.50 levels

Wed, Nov 4 2009, 10:01 GMT
by Abhishek Goenka, Nitika Bansal

India Forex Advisors

Rupee:

The Indian Rupee is unable to hold strength and moving with mild bearish bias. Rupee seems to be in range of 46.80 to 47.80 levels. It is maintaining strength in short to medium term horizon till we see a clear break of 48.00 levels again on a weekly basis. 45.80 would remain as an important support at the bottom.Please note that dollar is in correction mode in overseas markets only if euro/usd breaks 1.4453 levels / gold breaks 990 dollars and crude breaks 70 dollars and dollar index breaks 78 levels in the global market a scenario of rupee weakness may occur again till then the view remains bullish for rupee. Exporters sell 47.50 plus levels. (USDINR - 47.14).Bullish

Euro:

Euro is still hovering below the weekly trendline and the bias is still bearish Selling on upticks is advised around 1.4750-1.48 levels for a medium target of 1.4550 levels. The gains of euro are not holding for long (it seems that market is discounting the good US data) Incase euro is unable to break above 1.4850 it will maintain correction till maintain correction till 1.4453 levels. (EurUsd-1.4728) .Bearish

Sterling:

Gbp is also holding weak and maintains bearish momentum since last 2-3 days despite good data from US. We need the pair to break 1.6250 levels again to maintain bearishness and head towards a 1.60 levels again. Selling at rises remains a good strategy for short term. (GBPUSD - 1.6408 ) Neutral

Yen:

JPY is facing resistance at 91.50 levels ( trendline resistance with 55 Days EMA in daily chart) . Only a break and hold above 91.50 levels for 2-3 trading session would change the bias of Yen to bearish otherwise still bullish to rangebound. Initiate cautious shorts around 91.50 levels keeping stoploss around 92.40 levels.( USDJPY -90.23) Bullish.

AUD:

AUD bounced back from 0.8915 levels as expected from the last few days but does not seem to maintain bullishness above weekly trendline support of 0.9000 levels despite a rate increase from Australia. Selling on every upticks is recommended with the a stop above 0.9100 on Daily closing basis.(AUDUSD- 0.9024) Bullish

Gold:

Comex Gold hits new all time high of $1088.5 per ounce on Tuesday supported by reports of IMF sale of 200 tonnes of gold to RBI and dollar index’ falling from from one month high, helped push Gold to record levels. Gold may hold on to current levels today ahead of the key U.S. interest rate decision today. (GOLD $1080) Bullish

Dollar Index:

Dollar index hit a one- month high of 76.81 on Tuesday but failed to stall due to the rally in commodities. U.S. FOMC will announce its interest rate decision tonight which could decided the break of crucial resistance of 77 levels.(DI- 75.28). Bearish to Neutral.

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Published on  Wed, Nov 4 2009, 10:02 GMT