http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-12-16.htmlComment: 2009’s rally came to an abrupt halt at $1912.00 in August and since November all aspects of this weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart suggest a short position. The latest corrective bounce was capped by its lower edge and this week prices have broken below 38% retracement support and the lows since 2010 at $1460.00. Some might say that price action over this period is an irregular ‘head-and-shoulder’ top. Therefore we feel that the next leg lower has started, as hinted by the dip below theFri, 16 Dec 2011 06:09:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-12-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-12-14.htmlComment: The latest rally topped at $1,800.00 as feared, helped by the ‘channel’ that has dominated since 2009, and now the moving averages are mixed at best. Price action since July can be seen as ‘triangle’ consolidation, but note that on the quarterly chart we have a ‘shooting star’ candle in Q3 and possibly another in Q4. This hints that spot Gold will hold below the record high at $1920.30, and probably $1800.00 too, during Q1 2012 and maybe all of next year. We are currently expecting aWed, 14 Dec 2011 14:10:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-12-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-09-27.htmlComment: September’s record monthly $385 trading range and the new record high $1,920.30 is not good news for anyone. We remind that price action over the last two months has the potential of becoming a sort of ‘blow off top’ so investors should tread very carefully for the rest of this year and that this, like some other instruments, can no longer be labelled ‘safe haven’, itself a rapidly dwindling set. The Amex ARCA Gold Bugs Index has a potential ‘broadening top’ formation, while priced inTue, 27 Sep 2011 09:30:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-09-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-08-31.htmlComment: Another dose of the jitters as spot Gold hits our target at $1,900.00 (record high $1,911.46), matching February 1980’s record $300.00 monthly trading range. As we warned in May, this has the potential of becoming a sort of ‘blow off top’ so investors should tread very carefully for the rest of this year. Last week’s candle was an ‘outside’ one, but not ‘bearish engulfing’, while the large ‘whiskers’ on either side of the body of the candle denote instability, as does the fact itWed, 31 Aug 2011 13:27:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-08-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-08-10.htmlComment: Since January 2009 prices of Brent Crude have been rallying, front month ICE contracts holding in a neat ‘channel’. They got somewhat overexcited in March this year and have formed an irregular ‘head-and-shoulders’ since then, but rather than marking a top, we feel this has led to a much-needed correction. This has brought prices back in line with the mean regression of the last twelve years and because of the ‘second’ right-shoulder it has only retraced 50% of the rally starting inWed, 10 Aug 2011 12:16:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-06-21.v02.htmlComment: The rally of the last year took front month Cotton prices to more than double our original forecast, a vertigo-inducing record 227.00 cents per pound. But oh, how quickly fortunes can change, almost erasing all of Q1 2011’s gains over these last three months. Price action since December might be an incomplete, irregular, very tall, ‘head-and-shoulders’ top which has yet to close below the ‘neckline’. However, 9 and 26-week moving averages have crossed to a sell and though the LaggingTue, 21 Jun 2011 10:50:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-06-21.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-06-21.htmlComment: As G20 Agriculture Ministers meet in Paris tomorrow to discuss a French initiative to reduce commodity price volatility and ‘speculation’, ICE Coffee futures have completed a ‘head-and-shoulders’ top. With a peak at 306.25 cents per pound, almost as high as 1997’s record 320.00, there is a possibility prices will plummet as they did in 1995 and 1998 after the last two massive ‘spike highs’. At the moment we are holding at the 200-day moving average (241.85) and the weekly IchimokuTue, 21 Jun 2011 09:26:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-06-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-25.htmlComment: The small ‘head-and-shoulders’ top that we had spotted on the ICE #11 front month Sugar futures contract saw prices drop sharply to comfortably reach our medium term target at 22.00 cents per pound. In March we warned that basing activity might then start here, the 61% Fibonacci retracement area of 2010’s rally; it appears to be doing so but as yet evidence is poor at best and the daily and weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ charts still suggests a short position. Probably the best solution forWed, 25 May 2011 16:50:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-23.htmlComment: Once again the Technicals of the front month Wheat future are bullish but not compellingly so. Perhaps it is not surprising that at these relatively expensive levels it is struggling to get much traction. Having spent most of the last forty years trading in a band very roughly between 250 and 550 cents per bushel, 2008’s massive ‘spike’ up to a record 1334.50 is seen as a bit of an anomaly. Subsequent price action looks like a market getting used to a big new higher trading band,Mon, 23 May 2011 17:50:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-19.v02.htmlComment: Front month Soybeans, while rallying as predicted in October 2010, have done so more slowly than we thought so that they have yet to reach our original target at 1550 cents per bushel, an area where they peaked in April 2008 and August 2008’s record of 1663. We feel that momentum is currently poised to turn decidedly bullish, the July contract is not overbought, and we are close to the apex of this year’s large ‘triangle’ consolidation. Thrashing around 1350 for the last twelve weeksThu, 19 May 2011 13:18:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-19.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-19.htmlComment: Front month Corn futures have lived up to our extremely bullish view of six months ago, re-testing the record high of 2008 at 765.00 cents per bushel to post an even higher one at 783.75 in April 2011. Prices have subsequently retreated, tarred by the same broad brush as many other commodities, reflecting amateurs’ shaky grasp of the subject, their slash and burn mentality seen in tumbling open interest (also from a record level). Understandable nervousness as we trade four standardThu, 19 May 2011 11:16:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-12.v03.htmlComment: Record volume for Comex Silver futures in April, almost six times the average monthly volume of the last decade, coupled with a Gold/Silver ratio at 32.25 (over two standard deviations below the 30-year mean) and the closest it’s been to 1970 and 1980’s record lows of 18.00 could mean only one thing: it would all end in tears. Last week’s rout from a high at $49.51 means we have peaked below the record high on Comex of $50.35 per ounce (February 1980 and dropping to $11.40 theThu, 12 May 2011 13:42:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-12.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-12.v02.htmlComment: Excitement and battered nerves as gold forms a ‘bearish engulfing’ weekly candle ahead of our long term target at $1,600.00 (record high $1,575.79). At the moment there are no signs that an important high has been set, merely that a period of correction and consolidation has started keeping prices in the middle of the neat ‘channel’ that has dominated since late 2008, with all aspects of this weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart still pointing to a long position. However, slightly moreThu, 12 May 2011 11:27:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-12.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-12.htmlComment: Front-month Nymex Crude Oil futures volume over the last year has been roughly ten times the average of the 1990’s through to 2006 (increasing six-fold across the board) when the pace picked up significantly as did open interest. This surge of speculators, possibly fleeing the negative real interest rate policy pursued by many central banks, explains the vicious price swings and increased implied volatility; this week’s decision to raise initial margins makes complete sense. LastThu, 12 May 2011 11:18:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-11.htmlComment: Excitement and battered nerves as gold forms a ‘bearish engulfing’ weekly candle ahead of our long term target at $1,600.00 (record high $1,575.79). At the moment there are no signs that an important high has been set, merely that a period of correction and consolidation has started keeping prices in the middle of the neat ‘channel’ that has dominated since late 2008, with all aspects of this weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart still pointing to a long position. However, slightly moreWed, 11 May 2011 14:19:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-05-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-03-25.htmlComment: Spot Silver’s rally over the last seven months has been truly spectacular, caused in part by substitution as Gold rallied to new record highs, so that the Gold/Silver ratio at 38.25 currently (over two standard deviations below the 30-year mean) is at its lowest since 1983, as near as it’s been to 1970 and 1980’s record lows of 18.00. While silver prices are still below the record high just over $55.00 per ounce on Comex in January 1980, the stuff is certainly not cheap. Adjusted forFri, 25 Mar 2011 05:09:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-03-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-03-22.htmlComment: Once again the front month contract of the Dollar Index future is testing the lower edge of the large consolidation ‘triangle’ that has dominated the last three years. Perhaps it will be a case of ‘third time lucky’ and we shall see the break lower we have been waiting for since November. Note the steeply falling 9-week moving average and that all elements of this weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart suggest a short position. This would target the all-time low of 70.80 of March 2008. AfterTue, 22 Mar 2011 10:28:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-03-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-03-16.htmlComment: Over the last two years or so this ICE #11 Sugar futures contract has seen huge price gyrations, comparable to 1980 though smaller than the mid-1970’s record high at 66 cents per pound (compare with the ultra-long term mean of 10 cents). Since January we have formed a ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, another new interim high maintaining the series since bullish momentum exploded in May 2009. Last week’s close below the ‘neckline’ saw momentum turn bearish for the first time since June. ThisWed, 16 Mar 2011 11:50:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-03-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-02-16.htmlComment: The break above the pivotal $590.00 level has caused the surge that we had predicted, comfortably meeting our upside target at $810.00. We remind that the record was $1095.00 in 2001 (when the Ford Motor Co tried to corner the market). Because we have seen eight consecutive monthly moves higher, expect some hesitation at the $850.00 area. However, a monthly close above here targets the record high. Iridium, also a Platinum Group Metal, is seeing a terrifying surge higher too, with noWed, 16 Feb 2011 14:02:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-02-07.htmlComment: Front month Wheat futures managed to close above 750 cents per bushel in February, which had been our long term target and something we did not think it would manage. Bullish momentum is strong, but not nearly as much as it was in 2007 and 2010. Up at these historically lofty levels, prices will probably find life difficult once again. Therefore we have adjusted our outlook, allowing for an ‘extension’ to the psychological 1,000 at which point we shall be watching for signs ofMon, 07 Feb 2011 19:51:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-02-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-02-04.htmlComment: Comex High-Grade Copper has comfortably reached our target at $400 per pound. Three-month forward LME Copper is trading at a new record high and while overbought (as it has been since Christmas) bullish momentum has remained steady since September. Prices have held in a very neat ‘channel’ for the last two years and while there are no signs of breaking out of it just yet, we feel that it is unlikely to hold for a third consecutive year. One of the reasons the rally has been soFri, 04 Feb 2011 05:19:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-02-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-01-21.htmlComment: Consolidating between $1500 and $1800 all of last year, frustrating many and putting novices off for good. This week’s break above $1800 hints that this precious metal is preparing to move back into bull mode which should set off the next rally to our first target which remains at $2000. Also allow for a re-test of the all-time high $2290 of March 2008. Note that momentum has been steadily bullish since September and it is not overbought, and that it should outperform spot Gold veryFri, 21 Jan 2011 05:40:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2011-01-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-11-09.htmlComment: Volumes in this Dollar Index futures contract have soared this year, five times the average of the previous nine years, while open interest has barely budged; this suggests a lot of speculating and few taking seriously the need to hedge. Since the all-time low of 70.80 of March 2008 prices have traded broadly sideways around a mean at 79.75 and are currently one standard deviation below this point. Price action since January 2008 can be seen as a large right-angled ‘triangle’ allowingTue, 09 Nov 2010 13:37:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-26.v02.htmlComment: Record open interest and weekly volumes so far this month, roughly five times the 1996-2006 average, show the dramatic effect US vehicle fuel policy has had on foodstuffs since 2006. Front month contracts, instead of holding between 200 and 400 cents per bushel as they had done from 1973 to 2006, skyrocketed to an all-time high at 765 cents in June 2008. Subsequently collapsing they have formed a new interim ‘triangle’ base at 300. The early October strong rally from 454 added so muchTue, 26 Oct 2010 13:05:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-26.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-26.htmlComment: The Soybean complex is on the move at last after spending the best part of two years consolidating in a ‘triangle’ formation, CBoT Bean Oil leading the way, Meal lagging. Front month Soybeans spent a long time basing against the 900 cents per bushel area, one standard deviation above the long term mean and where the market had peaked many times over the last forty years; what had been resistance becomes support, as per classic Dow theory. We have now closed above the top of theTue, 26 Oct 2010 10:08:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-13.htmlComment: At least 7,000 years ago Asian and European wild boars were domesticated. Today the gestation period of a sow is four months and she will give birth to an average of 10 piglets who eat solid food at five weeks and are ready for slaughter at four/five months of age. This procedure is repeated at least twice a year thereby allowing for a rapid increase in numbers. Tremendous elasticity of supply, a short production period which is highly price sensitive mean superb fine tuning has beenWed, 13 Oct 2010 13:54:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-12.htmlComment: Every aspect of this chart suggests a long position, regardless of sky-high prices, though spot Gold did get terribly overbought last week. Gold bugs’ glee at this year’s 23% appreciation should be tempered with the knowledge that over this same period spot Silver is up 37%, spot Palladium 45%, and LME 3-month Tin 56%. Investors in all of these should also keep in mind that from this year’s peak the US Dollar Index has dropped 12.5%, down 15.0% year-to-date against the Euro,Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:31:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-09-15.v02.htmlComment: Spot Palladium and LME 3-month Tin have been this year’s best-performing metals gaining 35%, but were beaten hands down by Iridium’s 70% spree to $715.00. We feel that Platinum Group Metals, excluding Rhodium, look set for further rallies between now and year-end, this one having perhaps the best prospects. ‘Triangle’ consolidation under April’s high at $570.50 sets up for a re-test of 2008’s high at the pivotal $590.00 level. Between here and the psychological $600.00 is something ofWed, 15 Sep 2010 13:13:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-09-15.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-09-15.htmlComment: Interest in this metal has grown exponentially in the last eight years and over the last twenty months spot Silver has been trending steadily higher, 50 and 200-day moving averages supportive, meeting our original target in the $18.00 area. This month’s break above ‘triangle’ consolidation sees bullish momentum stronger than anything since May, the measured target being 2008’s high at $21.24, allowing for an overshoot to $23.50/25.00. Monthly and quarterly closes above theWed, 15 Sep 2010 09:42:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-07-27.htmlComment: From 1970 to 2003 front month High Grade Copper contracts on Comex traded between 50 and 150 cents per pound, probably averaging 80 most of the time. A dramatic reappraisal since then has seen it trade between 250 and 400 much of the time and 165 is now a long term base, one standard deviation below the mean at 255. Having corrected lower since April’s high at 362 (345 is one standard deviation above the mean since 2004), we feel a new interim low against 38% Fibonacci retracementTue, 27 Jul 2010 10:29:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-07-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-07-14.htmlComment: Coffee futures, at around 160.00 cents per pound, are expensive – two standard deviations above the mean regression since 1980. June’s break above pivotal resistance around 145.00 – one standard deviation from the mean of the last 30 years, looks like a potential ‘pennant’. Bullish momentum is stronger than it has been in two years suggesting another sharp rally this summer. Our long term target remains at 180.00/200.00, not ruling out an extension and ‘spike high’ to 212.00/222.00.Wed, 14 Jul 2010 13:26:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-07-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-03-10.htmlComment: Almost, but not quite. While Gold gets all the hype, spot Palladium is by far the best performer, increasing in value by 240% over the last twelve months (as compared to bottom of the pile Gold at 124%). The only other metals that come close are Nickel (225%) and Copper (210%). Last week it closed at a new high for this year, but just below 75% Fibonacci retracement resistance, which is a pity really. Allow for several weeks of consolidation under the psychological $500.00 area, whereWed, 10 Mar 2010 16:49:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-03-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-03-03.htmlComment: Early in 2009 Nickel based ahead of $7,000, the mean price of the last thirty years, suggesting it would hold above here for at least a year and probably a great deal longer. After consolidating neatly between $16,000 and $21,000 for the best part of eight months, Nickel is on the move again. March’s gap higher signals the start of the next leg, and moving averages should help push prices up to the $25,000 area where consolidation is likely. However, as is so often the case with thisWed, 03 Mar 2010 11:42:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-03-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-02-03.htmlComment: This week’s smart bounce has taken prices from the 26-week moving average up to the 9-week one. This is potentially a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle which would form an interim ‘double bottom’ against 50% Fibonacci retracement support. Adding weight to this view is the fact that corrective wave C is 0.60% of the A leg and comes in just ahead of long term trendline support. The bounce has helped keep long term momentum bullish and comes at a time when gold had become very oversold. Also,Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:30:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2010-02-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-10-21.v02.htmlComment:  Last week front month Cotton futures closed well above 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance and at the highest price since August last year, just above 63.00 cents per pound which is the mean of the last thirty-five years. Moving averages have helped the contracts along nicely since April this year and have allowed this one to break and hold above what had been a massive Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Momentum is yet to turn truly bullish and we are fractionally overbought, so allow for aWed, 21 Oct 2009 15:13:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-10-21.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-10-21.htmlComment: Last week’s close above the top of the large ‘triangle’ formation has given bullish momentum a shot in the arm, taking it higher than it has been since March. The front month contract is currently testing pivotal resistance around 145.00 cents per pound. A weekly close above here should set off another sharp rally to 154.00 where a little more hesitation is likely. Later this year, possibly around year-end, expect a re-test of February 2008’s high at 169.60 and then another rally inWed, 21 Oct 2009 12:29:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-10-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-10-07.htmlComment:  Since mid-September bullish momentum has picked up considerably so that front month Cocoa futures are in a position to challenge last year’s high at $3385 per metric tonne. Price action since then is seen as ‘triangle’ consolidation, in what might be a complex Wave 4 of a long term rally that started in 2001. While some might feel it is already overdone at these historically lofty levels, we view this as the next stage of a very broad upward-sloping channel and favour a break toWed, 07 Oct 2009 17:31:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-07-01.htmlComment: This Sugar futures contract has traded around a mean of 10 cents per pound for almost forty years. It has been subject to several periods where it has traded over 15 cents, most recently the last nine weeks and before that in H1 2006. Though overbought, bullish momentum is close to some of its strongest levels this decade and therefore feel it has further rallying to do. Contract expiry is to blame for today’s gap higher, but does underline the very strong upside pressure builtWed, 01 Jul 2009 09:41:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/technical-analysis-commodities/2009-07-01.html