Comment: 2009’s rally came to an abrupt halt at $1912.00 in August and since November all aspects of this weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart suggest a short position. The latest corrective bounce was capped by its lower edge and this week prices have broken below 38% retracement support and the lows since 2010 at $1460.00. Some might say that price action over this period is an irregular ‘head-and-shoulder’ top. Therefore we feel that the next leg lower has started, as hinted by the dip below the average price since 2005 at $1352.00, so expect a cautious drop to $1300.00 and then probably a faster one to $1200.00. Note that a potential overshoot to $850.00 cannot be ruled out because bearish momentum is among the strongest ever.
A weekly close above $1700.00 would force a re-think.
