The usual Thursday unemployment claims today are expected (Bloomberg) to rise to 365,000 in the week ended Oct 13, with applications down to a four-year low of 339,000 in the previous week and causing a ruckus about cooked data. Remember, applications are always revised. We also get the Conference Board leading indicators, expected up 0.2% in Sept after a small drop in Aug. The Philly Fed may show a rise manufacturing for the first time in 6 months, expected at 1 from -1.9 in Sept (Bloomberg) or even 2 (Market News). Even the natural gas data from the Energy Dept could get some attention today, since gas has become a cause célèbre over re-allocation, high-speed algo trading and a bunch of other factors.
Bottom line, both the Chinese and US economies are more robust than anyone thought just a few weeks ago, making the world safe for risk, even under-estimated risk like what we see in Europe. The EMU sanity check:
- The IMF predicts a 80% probability of eurozone recession in 2013
- The WSJ estimates capital flight/deleveraging credit contraction by $2.8 trillion in assets by end-2013
- German thank-tank forecast EMU growth at -0.5% this year and +0.1% next year.
- S&P cut Spain's rating two notches to triple-B-minus, one step over junk, and Moody’s has the same rating (Baa3), also one notch over junk.
- The EU Summit on Oct 18-19 that was supposed to resolve the Greek bailout terms will not do so.
|SPOT||CURRENT POSITION||SIGNAL STRENGHT||OPEN DATE||OPEN RATE||POSITION GAIN/LOSS|
|USD/JPY||79.22||LONG USD||WEAK||10 /17/12||78.46||0.64%|
|GBP/USD||1.6160||LONG GBP||NEW*WEAK||10 /18/12||1.6160||0.00%|
|GBP/JPY||128.04||LONG GBP||NEW*WEAK||10 /18/12||128.04||0.00%|
|USD/CAD||0.9777||LONG USD||WEAK||10 /04/12||1.0229||-0.86%|
|AUD/USD||1.0400||LONG AUD||NEW*WEAK||10 /18/12||1.0400||0.00%|
|AUD/JPY||82.38||LONG AUD||WEAK||LONG AUD||81.19||1.47%|