Quote:
‘No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich.’ Lord Overstone (1796-1883)
The News:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP June Retail Trade +0.4% M/M, +3.2% Y/Y, versus –2.0% and revised +2.9% May.
00:50 JP June Large Retailers’ Sales –3.0% Y/Y versus revised –3.9% May.
07:00 GB July Nationwide House Prices –0.5% M/M, +6.6% Y/Y, versus +0.1% and +8.7% June.
08:55 DE July Change in Unemployment (-40K to –10K, Unemployed 7.6% to 7.7%, versus –21K and 7.7% June).
09:30 GB June Net Consumer Credit (-£0.1B to +%0.5B, on Dwellings +£0.8B to +£1.4B, vs +£0.3B and +£1.2B May).
09:30 GB June Mortgage Approvals (47K to 51K vs 49.8K May).
10:00 EZ16 July Business Climate (0.27 to 0.63, Industry –6 to –4, Economic 97.2 to 101.2, Services3 to 6, versus 0.37, -6, 98.7 and 4 June).
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (445K to 500K, Continuing Claims 4400K to 4650K, vs 464K and 4487K prior week).
13:30 CA June Industrial Product Prices (-1.0% to +0.5% M/M, Raw Materials –1.1% to +1.5% M/M, versus +0.3% and –7.2% May).
00:01 GB July GfK Consumer Confidence (-22 to –17 versus –19 June).
00:30 JP June Jobless (Mizuho Securities 5.2%, Job-to-Applicant 0.50, versus 5.2% and 0.50 May).
00:30 JP June Household Spending (Mizuho Securities –0.5% Y/Y versus –0.7% May). Tokyo July CPI (-0.8% Y/Y).
The Psychology:
US House Financial Services Committee hearing on commercial property and mortgage insurers.
The Risk:
The Fed’s Beige book shows activity held steady/shrank in Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, NY + Richmond.
Today’s most interesting chart: EUR/CZK
Government approves budget freeze; deficit at 5.3%.
