Quote:
‘You have given me a sense of the present, the happiness of the present. I’ve never had that before.’ Harold Pinter (1930-2008)
The News:
Bank of Japan governor Yamaguchi says ‘the economy could hit a soft patch until around the summer’.
The Numbers:
Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
(23:50) JP December Trade Balance 631B yen, Current Account 1100B, versus 490B and 1,304B November.
(23:50) JP January M2 Money Supply +2.9% Y/Y, M3 +2.1% Y/Y, versus +3.1% and +2.2% December.
(23:50) JP January Bank Lending –1.5% Y/Y (biggest drop in 4 years), Adjusted –1.4% Y/Y, versus –1.0% and –0.9%.
04:30 JP January Bankruptcies –21.8% Y/Y versus –16.6% December.
05:00 JP January Economy Watchers’ Survey Current 38.8, Outlook 41.9, versus 35.4 and 36.6 December.
06:45 CH January Jobless 4.1% S/A versus 4.2% December.
08:15 CH December Retail Sales (versus +0.6% November).
09:30 EZ16 February Sentix Investor Confidence (-5.9 to –1.6 versus –3.7 January).
13:15 CA January Housing Starts (165K to 187K versus 174.5K December).
22:00 AU Reserve Bank of Australia 50th anniversary symposium, Sydney.
00:01 GB January BRC Retail Sales Monitor (versus +4.2% Y/Y December).
00:01 GB January BRC House Price Balance (25% to 33% versus 30% December).
The Psychology:
G7 finance ministers decide economies improving but too early to pull back stimulus packages.
The Risk:
Treasury auction of 4.50% 2026 bond in Bratislava, more on the 22nd.
Today’s most interesting chart: Benchmark 2-year Schatz yield
Record low yield and weekly close, under the ECB’s 1.00% target rate.
