Quote:
‘I spent 90% of my money on women and drink. The rest I wasted.’ George Best (1946-2005)
The News:
Second earthquake in two days hits the island of Sumatra, Indonesia.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP Q3 Tankan Survey Large Manufacturers –33, Outlook –21, Non-Manufacturing –26, Outlook –17, All-Industry Capex –10.8% versus –48/-30/-29/-21/-9.4% Q2. Dollar/Yen average 94.50 to March 2010.
00:50 JP August Retail Trade +1.0% M/M, -1.8% Y/Y, versus +0.5% and –2.4% July.
00:50 JP August Large Retailers’ Sales –6.8% Y/Y vs –8.4% July. 06:00 JP Sep Vehicle Sales +3.5% Y/Y vs +2.3%.
07:00 DE August Retail Sales –1.5% M/M, -2.6% Y/Y, vs +0.7% and –1.0%.
08:30 CH September PMI (50 to 52 versus 50.2).
09:30 GB September Manufacturing PMI (49.4 to 52.0 versus 49.7 August). BoE Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey.
10:00 EZ16 August Unemployment (9.6% to 9.7% versus 9.5% July). 10:00 CH SNB Quarterly Bulletin.
12:30 US September Challenger Job Cuts (versus –13.8% August). 14:00 US Fed’s Bernanke testifies, Washington.
13:30 US August Personal Income (-0.1% to +0.5%, Spending+0.9% to +1.6%, versus 0% and +0.2% July).
13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims (519K to 555K, Continuing Claims 6100K to 6330K, vs 530K and 6138K prior week).
13:30 US August Core PCE (0% to +0.2% M/M, +1.2% to +1.4% Y/Y, Deflator –0.9% to –0.5% vs +0.1/+1.4/-0.8%).
15:00 US September Manufacturing ISM (52 to 56, Prices Paid 58 to 73, versus 52.9 and 65 August).
15:00 US August Construction Spending (-0.6% to +0.6% versus –0.2% July).
15:00 US August Pending Home Sales (-2.5% to +3.0% versus +3.2% July). 22:30 US Fed’s Lockhart/Pianalto speak.
The Psychology:
Informal meeting of EU finance ministers continues through to Friday, Gothenburg.
The Risk:
China on holiday for a week celebrating the Peoples Republic’s 60th anniversary.
Today’s most interesting chart: EUR/CHF
Once again threat of/intervention sends it higher suddenly.
