Quote:
‘For too long, perhaps ever since the war, we postponed facing up to fundamental choices and fundamental changes in our society and in our economy…We have been living on borrowed time…We used to think you could spend your way out of recession…by cutting taxes and by boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists.’ James Callaghan (1912-2005)
The News:
Typhoons cause havoc in China, Japan and China.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:50 JP June Trade Balance 602B, Current Account 1152B, versus +387B and +1301B May.
00:50 JP June Machine Orders +9.7% M/M, -29.7% Y/Y, versus –3.0% and –38.3% May.
00:50 JP July M3 Money Supply +1.9% Y/Y, Bank Lending +2.8%, versus +1.7% and +3.1% June.
05:30 July Bankruptcies +1.0% Y/Y versus +7.4% June.
06:00 JP July Economy Watchers’ Survey Current 42.4, Outlook 44.9, versus 42.2 and 45.6 June.
09:00 EZ16 August Sentix Investor Confidence (-30 to –20 versus –31.3 July).
00:01 GB July RICS House Price Balance (-10.0% to 0% versus –18.1% June).
00:01 GB July BRC Retail Sales Monitor (versus +1.4% June).
The Psychology:
The Bank of Japan starts a two-day rate-setting meeting (expected unchanged at 0.10%) and there are holidays in Singapore and South Africa.
The Risk:
Thin summer markets.
Today’s most interesting chart: EUR/CHF
Extraordinary chart with lots of intervention.
