Quote:
‘Expect the worst. You then get an uplift from the gap between the worst that you expected, and the way that reality’s turned out to be. Exaggerate the awfulness, it’s a very British thing to do.’ Alain de Botton (1969-)
The News:
Pension deficits at FTSE 100 companies rise to a record $163B after stock market gains.
The Numbers:
British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets.
00:01 GB July Nationwide Consumer Confidence 60 versus 58 May.
09:30 GB July Services PMI (51 to 52.5 versus 51.6 June).
09:30 GB June Industrial Production (-0.4% to +0.3% M/M, -11.7% to –10.7% Y/Y, versus –0.6% and –11.9% May).
09:30 GB June Manufacturing Production (-0.4% to +0.5% M/M, -12.3% to –11.5% Y/Y, vs –0.5% and –12.7% May).
10:00 EZ16 June Retail Sales (-0.1% to +1.1% M/M, -3.0% to –1.4% Y/Y, versus –0.4% and –3.3% May).
10:30 GB July BRC Shop Price Index (versus +0.2% M/M and +0.7% Y/Y June).
12:30 US July Challenger Job Cuts (versus –9.0% Y/Y June).
13:15 US July ADP Employment Change (-425K to –200K versus –473K June).
14:30 US Treasury’s Barr testifies on credit rating agencies to Senate Banking Committee, Washington.
15:00 US July Non-Manufacturing ISM (46 [Mizuho Securities] to 49 versus 47 June).
15:00 US June Factory Orders (-2.1% to +1.6% versus +1.2% May).
15:00 US Treasury Quarterly Refunding news conference.
00:01 GB July NIESR GDP (versus –0.4% June).
The Psychology:
So many hopes (and some fears) wrapped up in equity indices.
The Risk:
The Bank of England starts a two-day MPC meeting (unanimously expected unchanged at 0.50%).
Today’s most interesting chart: Spot Palladium
Highest since September at $280 per ounce.
